Article (Scientific journals)
From cellular perturbation to probabilistic risk assessments.
Maertens, Alexandra; Kincaid, Breanne; Bridgeford, Eric et al.
2025In ALTEX: Alternatives to Animal Experimentation, 42 (3), p. 413 - 434
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Keywords :
artificial intelligence; biological variability; chemical hazard prediction; cheminformatics; probabilistic risk assessment; regulatory toxicology; systems biology; uncertainty metrics; Hazardous Substances; Risk Assessment/methods; Humans; Probability; Animals; Models, Statistical; Animal Testing Alternatives/methods; Hazardous Substances/toxicity
Abstract :
[en] Chemical risk assessment is evolving from traditional deterministic approaches to embrace proba­bilistic methodologies, where risk of hazard manifestation is understood as a more or less probable event depending on exposure, individual factors, and stochastic processes. This is driven by advancements in human stem cells, complex tissue engineering, high-performance computing, and cheminformatics, and is more recently facilitated by large-scale artificial intelligence models. These innovations enable a more nuanced understanding of chemical hazards, capturing the complexity of biological responses and variability within populations. However, each technology comes with its own uncertainties impacting on the estimation of hazard probabilities. This shift addresses the limitations of point estimates and thresholds that oversimplify hazard assessment, allowing for the integration of kinetic variability and uncertainty metrics into risk models. By leveraging modern technologies and expansive toxicological data, probabilistic approaches offer a comprehensive evaluation of chemical safety. This paper summarizes a workshop held in 2023 and discusses the technological and data-driven enablers, and the challenges faced in their implementation, with particular focus on perturbation of biology as the basis of hazard estimates. The future of toxico­logical risk assessment lies in the successful integration of these probabilistic models, promising more accurate and holistic hazard evaluations.
[en] Understanding chemical risks is key to public health. Traditional risk assessments rely on fixed safety margins and animal tests, which can miss complex human responses. Probabilistic risk assessment uses advanced tools – human stem cells, organ‑on‑chip systems, and AI – to estimate the likelihood of harm across different scenarios. By modeling individual variability (genetics, exposures) and quantifying uncertainty, it provides nuanced risk estimates rather than binary “safe/unsafe” labels. This approach increases transparency, shows confidence intervals, and reduces animal testing by integrating human‑relevant data. Challenges include defining harm thresholds, integrating diverse datasets, and gaining regulatory acceptance. Workshops like the 2023 CAAT-ONTOX meeting in Italy highlighted how measuring biological perturbations (e.g., molecular or cellular changes) informs probability of adverse outcomes. As technologies and data improve, probabilistic methods promise more realistic, protective chemical safety evaluations that reflect real‑world human diversity.
Disciplines :
Human health sciences: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Author, co-author :
Maertens, Alexandra;  Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Whiting School of Engineering, Baltimore, MD, USA
Kincaid, Breanne;  Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Whiting School of Engineering, Baltimore, MD, USA
Bridgeford, Eric;  Dept. of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
Brochot, Celine;  Certara, Canterbury, Kent, UK
de Carvalho E Silva, Arthur;  University of Birmingham and Michabo Health Science Ltd, Birmingham, UK
Dorne, Jean-Lou C M;  European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Parma, Italy
Geris, Liesbet  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'aérospatiale et mécanique > Génie biomécanique ; Mechanical Engineering, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
Husøy, Trine;  Food Safety/ Centre for Sustainable Diets, Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH), Oslo, Norway
Kleinstreuer, Nicole;  National Institutes of Health, National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences, DTT/NICEATM, Durham, NC, USA
Maia Ladeira, Luiz Carlos  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > GIGA > GIGA Molecular & Computational Biology - Biomechanics & Computationel Tissues Engineering
Middleton, Alistair;  Safety & Environmental Assurance Centre, Unilever, Colworth Science Park, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, UK
Reynolds, Joe;  Safety & Environmental Assurance Centre, Unilever, Colworth Science Park, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, UK
Rodriguez, Blanca;  Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Roggen, Erwin L;  3RsMC ApS, Kongens Lyngby, Lyngby, Denmark
Russo, Giulia;  Drug and Health Sciences, University of Catania, Catania, Italy
Thayer, Kris;  Chemical & Pollutant Assessment Division (CPAD), US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Durham, NC, USA
Hartung, Thomas;  Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing (CAAT), Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Whiting School of Engineering, Baltimore, MD, USA ; Doerenkamp-Zbinden Chair for Evidence-based Toxicology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Whiting School of Engineering, Baltimore, MD, USA ; CAAT-Europe, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany
More authors (7 more) Less
Language :
English
Title :
From cellular perturbation to probabilistic risk assessments.
Publication date :
2025
Journal title :
ALTEX: Alternatives to Animal Experimentation
ISSN :
1868-596X
eISSN :
1868-8551
Publisher :
ALTEX Edition, Germany
Volume :
42
Issue :
3
Pages :
413 - 434
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Available on ORBi :
since 22 July 2025

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