Prévision de la production nationale d’arachide au Sénégal à partir du modèle agrométéorologique AMS et du NDVI

As many subsaharian countries, the agriculture of Senegal is widely dependent on the climate. This agriculture takes up 60% of active population and contributes at 20% of the GDP. It’s dominated by many crops industries, whose groundnut industry.
The aim of this study is to find a forecasting model of the national production of groundnut at the third decade of September and October. This model is based on the yield forecasting at departmental scale with the outputs of the agrometeorological model AgroMetShell, NDVI data and other meteorological data.
This study which is one first approach in groundnut’s yield forecasting, shows the relation between yield and the explanatory variables at the third decade of October provide a best forecast of the yield of groundnut at national scale (R² = 0.55 and RMSE = 28 kg/ha).