Unveiling climate resilience of Lake Guidimouni: an integrated DPSIR (drivers–pressures–state– impact–response)–GIS framework for water dynamics, vegetation productivity, and human impacts in the Zinder drylands (Niger)

Lake Guidimouni, a designated Ramsar wetland in Niger’s Zinder Region, represents a keystone socio-ecological system whose ecological functions, cultural heritage, and local livelihoods are tightly interwoven. Yet, this emblematic dryland lake is increasingly destabilised by intensifying climatic extremes—prolonged droughts and recurrent floods—and by accelerating anthropogenic pressures. To provide a more rigorous and climate-centred diagnosis of these transformations, we developed and operationalized a spatially explicit, participatory and statistically validated DPSIR–GIS framework integrating object-based image analysis, spatial autocorrelation modelling and NDVI-based carbon proxies. This combined approach enabled the development of a fine-scale vulnerability map of the lake and its periphery, capturing both biophysical and socio-economic dimensions of change. Our findings reveal two converging threats jeopardising ecosystem sustainability: (i) extensive inundation of agricultural lands and (ii) the massive proliferation of the invasive macrophyte Typha domingensis. Land-use analysis demonstrates that approximately 77.2 ha of irrigated croplands have transitioned into aquatic grasslands, signalling a structural ecological shift tightly linked to hydrological stress and climate variability. Moreover, 42.5% of irrigated agriculture is now exposed to flooding and exhibits high susceptibility to vegetative invasion. In response to these pressures, we identify targeted, science-based strategies—such as selective mechanical harvesting, hydrological regulation, and adaptive local governance—as priority resilience levers capable of restoring ecological balance and safeguarding ecosystem services. These findings underline the urgent need for integrated natural-resource management in Sahelian drylands. The analysis further integrates convergent stakeholder perceptions collected through participatory co-production, which were systematically embedded within the DPSIR framework to triangulate and validate spatial and remote-sensing evidence.