[en] This paper presents a techno-economic feasibility assessment of replacing a natural gas fire-tube boiler with a high-temperature heat pump (HTHP) as the primary heat source for an industrial batch wood drying kiln loaded with Norway Spruce (Picea abies) in Belgium. A thermodynamic steady-state energy and mass balance model is developed in EES to quantify the kiln heating demand across seven sequential drying stages spanning a 48-hour cycle, with dry-bulb temperatures ranging from 55°C to 100°C. The HTHP performance data is derived from a real machine with a maximum supply temperature of 130°C, ensuring that commercially available technology forms the basis of the analysis. Economic simulation is performed for the period March 2025 to March 2026 using hourly day-ahead electricity prices, daily TTF natural gas spot prices, and EU ETS CO₂ allowance costs within the Belgian regulatory framework. The total annual kiln heating demand is 1680.9 MWh, and the HTHP achieves an average annual COP of 3.67, delivering 2183.8 MWh of heat at an electricity consumption of 631.4 MWh, while the boiler requires 2459.7 MWh of natural gas (at higher heating value, PCS) for an equivalent thermal output. The HTHP achieves annual operating cost savings of €63134 (36.3% reduction) relative to the boiler, with a Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH) of 58.2 €/MWh versus 82.1 €/MWh for the boiler, a 29.1% reduction. The cumulative net present value (NPV) payback period is approximately 3 years, with a total discounted saving of approximately €705k over a 25-year project lifetime. The results highlight that CO₂ emission charges under the EU ETS represent 25–35% of the monthly boiler operating cost, while electricity network fees and levies account for approximately 51% of the HTHP electricity bill, revealing a critical regulatory asymmetry that constrains the economic competitiveness of industrial electrification.
Disciplines :
Energy
Author, co-author :
Cendoya, Aitor ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Aérospatiale et Mécanique (A&M)
Ransy, Frédéric ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Aérospatiale et Mécanique (A&M)
Guo, Bentao ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Aérospatiale et Mécanique (A&M)
Quoilin, Sylvain ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'aérospatiale et mécanique > Systèmes énergétiques
Lemort, Vincent ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'aérospatiale et mécanique > Thermodynamique appliquée
Language :
English
Title :
Electrifying Industrial Wood Drying: Techno-Economic Assessment for High-Temperature Heat Pumps in Belgium
Publication date :
29 June 2026
Event name :
39th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems
Event organizer :
Ovidius University of Constanța
Event place :
Constanța, Romania
Event date :
June 28th – July 3rd
Event number :
39
By request :
Yes
Audience :
International
Main work title :
In proceedings of the 39th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems
Publisher :
ECOS, Constanta, Romania
Edition :
39
Pages :
12
Peer review/Selection committee :
Peer reviewed
Development Goals :
9. Industry, innovation and infrastructure
Name of the research project :
WEFORMING Buildings as Efficient Interoperable Formers of Clean Energy Ecosystems ARDnrgy
Funders :
EU - European Union SPF Economie - Service Public Fédéral Économie, PME, Classes moyennes et Énergie
Funding number :
HE - 101123556
Funding text :
The project that produced the results presented in this paper has received funding from the European Union's
Horizon Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement No. 10112355, in the framework of the
WeForming project. The authors would also like to acknowledge the funding provided by the Walloon Region
of Belgium in the framework of the ARDNrgy project.
