The recent enhancement of the surface melt over the Antarctic Peninsula dictated by thermodynamics

[en] Intense surface melt and subsequent meltwater ponding are the key triggers for the disintegration of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Although a longterm decline in AP surface melt has been evident since the early 1990s, episodes of intense surface melt events have frequently been reported in recent years. Here, using 1979 -2023 daily surface melt rates from regional climate models, we show that this declining trend has reversed, with November–February surface melt increasing significantly by 3% year (p < 0.05) between 2009 and 2022. Decomposition of trends based on circulation classification indicates that changes in the frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns cannot account for this enhancement. Instead, the thermodynamics —linked to variations in the surface energy budget independent of atmospheric circulation contribute 80% of the positive trend in AP surface melt. Analysis of extreme surface melt events further supports the dominant thermodynamic contribution.

Research Center/Unit :

SPHERES

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Zhang, Qinglin

Huai, Baojuan

Wang, Sai

Noël, Brice ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

van den Broeke, Michiel R.

Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Kittel, Christoph ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Qin, Dahe

Ding, Minghu

Language :

English

Title :

The recent enhancement of the surface melt over the Antarctic Peninsula dictated by thermodynamics

Publication date :

04 August 2026

Journal title :

Nature Communications

eISSN :

2041-1723

Publisher :

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Tags :

CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif

Additional URL :

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-76310-z

Available on ORBi :

since 10 August 2026

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