Renovation Rates in Belgium: An Evidence-Based Assessment: Federal and Regional Perspectives, 2000–2025

Belgium’s residential building stock ranks among the most energy-intensive in the European Union, with approximately 80% of dwellings still requiring energy upgrading to meet 2050 climate-neutrality targets. This report provides a comprehensive, evidence-based assessment of renovation rates across Belgium at both federal and regional levels, covering the period 2000–2024. Drawing on official permit statistics (Statbel), peer-reviewed research, national bank analyses, and regulatory frameworks, we document that the overall permit-based renovation intensity has remained broadly stagnant at approximately 1% of the residential stock per annum over 25 years, with deep renovations — those achieving the two highest EPC performance labels — accounting for only ~0.2% annually. Marked regional divergence is identified: the Flemish Region consistently records the highest intensity (~1.0–1.1%), supported by a binding post-purchase renovation obligation introduced in January 2023; the Walloon Region trails at ~0.8–0.9%, with a slight downward trend since 2015 and no binding obligation in force; and the Brussels-Capital Region records the lowest permit-per-building rate (~0.4–0.6%) owing to its apartment-dominated, condominium-governed housing stock. A COVID-era peak in 2021 — reaching ~1.35% nationally — proved short-lived, reversing sharply by 2024 to approximately 0.85% at the federal level. Seven evidence-based data tables and a longitudinal chart synthesise rate trajectories, policy events, and the gap to EU 2030 and 2050 targets. Meeting the 2050 decarbonisation objective requires tripling renovation activity in Flanders and quadrupling it in Wallonia and Brussels. The findings underscore the urgent need for strengthened binding obligations, targeted financial instruments for lower-income households, governance reform in multi-owner buildings, and workforce development across all three regions.