Climate-driven load shifts and the optimal design of district heating and cooling systems: Planning energy supply for a warming century

Hachez, Jonathan; Ghilain, Nicolas; Kök, Ali; Coppitters, Diederik

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127585

Article (Scientific journals)

Climate-driven load shifts and the optimal design of district heating and cooling systems: Planning energy supply for a warming century

Hachez, Jonathan; Ghilain, Nicolas; Kök, Ali et al.

2026 • In Applied Energy, 410, p. 127585

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

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https://hdl.handle.net/2268/341797

DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127585

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Keywords :

Robust design; HVAC; Energy demand projection; cost optimization; climate impact on energy; seasonal thermal energy storage

Abstract :

[en] This paper introduces a multi-stage stochastic optimization framework based on Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) to plan long-term District Heating and Cooling (DHC) systems under deep climate uncertainty. Integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with uncertain CO2 prices and thermal demands, the framework provides adaptive investment strategies until 2100. Applied to a Belgian case, results project a fundamental shift from heating to cooling, with heat losses declining by up to and heat gains increasing by up to by 2100 across scenarios. The model consistently converges to robust, electrified configurations dominated by Air-Source Heat Pump (ASHP) and Ground-Source Heat Pump (GSHP) supported by seasonal Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES), with Natural Gas Boiler (NG) relegated to marginal backup roles. While transition mechanisms differ, driven by warming in high-emission pathways and by carbon pricing in mitigation pathways, system costs and emissions converge across scenarios. This work demonstrates that electrified DHC systems with seasonal storage offer a cost-effective, resilient strategy for temperate climates under deep uncertainty, though outcomes are sensitive to regional climate and demand profiles.

Disciplines :

Civil engineering

Author, co-author :

Hachez, Jonathan

Ghilain, Nicolas ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Sphères

Kök, Ali

Coppitters, Diederik

Language :

English

Title :

Climate-driven load shifts and the optimal design of district heating and cooling systems: Planning energy supply for a warming century

Publication date :

May 2026

Journal title :

Applied Energy

ISSN :

0306-2619

eISSN :

1872-9118

Publisher :

Elsevier BV

Volume :

410

Pages :

127585

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Additional URL :

https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0306261926002370?httpAccept=text/xml

Funders :

FWO - Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Vlaanderen

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since 23 February 2026

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