A viral clonality evenness score to predict progression to adult T-cell leukaemia in asymptomatic carriers of human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 in Japan: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study.

[en] BACKGROUND: Adult T-cell leukaemia/lymphoma (ATL) is a highly aggressive T-cell malignancy that occurs in approximately 2-7% of individuals with human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1), after decades of asymptomatic infection. To address the urgent need for predictive biomarkers to identify asymptomatic carriers of HTLV-1 at high risk of progression to ATL, we aimed to evaluate viral clonality sequencing as a potential tool for risk stratification.
METHODS: This retrospective longitudinal cohort study involved HTLV-1 carriers enrolled in the Joint Study on Predisposing Factors of ATL Development, a nationwide cohort study initiated in Japan in 2002. Participants were selected from this cohort on the basis of their baseline proviral load at the time of enrolment as an asymptomatic carrier, length of follow-up, and clinical outcome. The cohort was subdivided into three subgroups: the first comprising HTLV-1 carriers who developed ATL, the second comprising carriers with high proviral load (≥4%) who did not progress to ATL, and the third comprising carriers with low proviral load (<4%) who did not progress to ATL. DNA extracted from peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected at enrolment and at least one follow-up visit was analysed by HTLV-1 clonality sequencing and the proviral load was quantified. We calculated a viral clonality evenness (VCE) score, based on the Shannon Evenness Index, to quantify the uniformity of the clonal distribution of samples, for which 0 represents a perfectly monoclonal architecture and 1 indicates a completely polyclonal landscape. We then estimated the performance of proviral load thresholds and VCE scoring to classify the risk of progression to ATL using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the accuracy, and Matthews correlation coefficient. VCEs were compared between participant subgroups with the Wilcoxon rank sum test.
FINDINGS: 56 participants followed up by JSPFAD between Feb 6, 2003, and July 19, 2022, were included in this study: 17 who progressed to ATL (mean follow-up 8·3 years [SD 4·0]), 18 who had a high proviral load and did not progress to ATL (9·7 years [3·4]), and 21 who had a low proviral load and did not progress to ATL (7·5 years [3·0]). Clonality sequencing of samples from 39 participants who did not progress to ATL revealed hundreds to thousands of HTLV-1 integration sites at both timepoints, corresponding to multiple clones of low and uniform abundance, and these participants had high VCE scores (≥0·694) at baseline. By contrast, most participants (14 of 17) who progressed to ATL had a single predominant clone or two to four predominant clones at both timepoints, and lower VCE scores (<0·694) at baseline than those who did not progress (p<0·0001). AUCs were very similar for proviral load thresholds (91 [95% CI 80-98]) and VCE scoring (91 [78-100]), although when using methods that give equal weight to every individual, VCE scoring outperformed proviral load thresholds in predicting progression to ATL (accuracy: proviral load 0·76 [95% CI 0·76-0·77], VCE scoring 1·00 [0·99-1·00]; Matthews correlation coefficient: proviral load 0·23 [95% CI 0·19-0·24], VCE scoring 0·91 [0·80-1·00]). Prediction based on VCE scoring indicated no false positives, compared with 20% when using proviral load, although VCE scoring yields a greater number of false negatives (0·3% vs 0·1%).
INTERPRETATION: The implementation of VCE scoring in clinical practice could inform early pre-emptive therapeutic interventions, exclusively targeting individuals with HTLV-1 at high risk and aiming to prevent progression to aggressive, treatment-refractory disease. Further validation, including independent confirmation of the performance of VCE scoring in multiple populations and the characterisation of its temporal dynamics, will be crucial to determine its clinical utility and potential integration into care pathways.
FUNDING: Association Jules Bordet, FNRS-Télévie, FCC, WALInnov, FLF, JSPS-KAKENHI, and CoBiA.