ORBi: Runoff from Greenland's firn area – why do MODIS, RCMs and a firn model disagree? - 2026

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Runoff from Greenland's firn area – why do MODIS, RCMs and a firn model disagree?

Machguth, Horst; Tedstone, Andrew; Kuipers Munneke, Peter et al.

2026 • In The Cryosphere, 20 (1), p. 427-452

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https://hdl.handle.net/2268/340170

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10.5194/tc-20-427-2026

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[en] Abstract. Due to increasing air temperatures, surface melt and meltwater runoff expand to ever higher elevations on the Greenland ice sheet and reach far into its firn area. Here, we evaluate how two regional climate models (RCMs) simulate the expansion of the ice sheet runoff area: MAR, and RACMO with its offline firn model IMAU-FDM. For the purpose of this comparison we first improve an existing algorithm to detect daily visible runoff limits from MODIS satellite imagery. We then apply the improved algorithm to most of the Greenland ice sheet and compare MODIS to RCM runoff limits for the years 2000 to 2021. We find that RACMO/IMAU-FDM runoff limits are on average somewhat lower than MODIS and show little fluctuation from year to year. MAR runoff limits are higher than MODIS, but their inter-annual fluctuations are more similar to MODIS. Both models apply a bucket scheme to route meltwater vertically. Focusing on the K-transect, we demonstrate that differences in modelled firn temperatures and in the implementation of the bucket scheme govern RCM simulated runoff limits. The formulation of the runoff condition is of large influence: in RACMO/IMAU-FDM meltwater is only considered runoff when it reaches the bottom of the simulated firn pack; in MAR runoff can also occur from within the firn pack, which contributes to its high runoff limits. We show that total runoff along the K-transect, simulated by the two RCMs, diverges by up to 29 % in extraordinary melt years. This difference is mostly caused by the diverging simulated runoff limits, which emphasizes the importance of improving the simulations of Greenland's melting firn area.

Research Center/Unit :

SPHERES - ULiège

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Machguth, Horst

Tedstone, Andrew

Kuipers Munneke, Peter

Brils, Max

Noël, Brice ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Clerx, Nicole

Jullien, Nicolas

Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

van den Broeke, Michiel

Language :

English

Title :

Runoff from Greenland's firn area – why do MODIS, RCMs and a firn model disagree?

Publication date :

20 January 2026

Journal title :

The Cryosphere

ISSN :

1994-0416

eISSN :

1994-0424

Publisher :

Copernicus GmbH

Volume :

20

Issue :

1

Pages :

427-452

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Tags :

CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif
Tier-1 supercalculateur

Additional URL :

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/427/2026/tc-20-427-2026.pdf

Funders :

ERC - European Research Council
NESSC - Netherlands Earth System Science Centre
F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique
SNF - Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung

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