Change analysis; Climate change; CMIP6; European Hop Hornbeam; Species distribution model; Forestry; Plant Science
Abstract :
[en] Ostrya carpinifolia Scop. (European Hop Hornbeam) is a native tree in Europe as a species of the Betulaceae family. European Hop Hornbeam has a significant value for the European flora, and assessing the effects of climate change on habitats of species is essential for its sustainability. With this point of view, the main aim of the research was to predict the present and future potential distribution of European Hop Hornbeam across Europe. ‘‘IPSL-CM6A-LR’’ climate change model, ninety-six occurrence data, and seven bioclimatic variables were used to predict potential distribution areas with MaxEnt 3.4.1 program. This study applied a change analysis by comparing the present predicted potential distribution of European Hop Hornbeam with the future predicted potential distribution under the 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 climate change scenarios. Study results indicated that the sum of suitable and highly suitable areas of European Hop Hornbeam is calculated to be 1,136,706 km2 for the current potential distribution. On the contrary, 2,107,187 km2 of highly suitable and suitable areas will be diminished in the worst case by 2100. The most affected bioclimatic variable is BIO 19 (Precipitation of Coldest Quarter), considering the prediction of the species distribution. These findings indicated that the natural ecosystems of the Mediterranean region will shift to northern areas. This study represented a reference for creating a strategy for the protection and conservation of the species in the future.
Disciplines :
Agriculture & agronomy
Author, co-author :
Örücü, Ömer K. ; Faculty of Architecture, Department of Landscape Architecture, Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
Azadi, Hossein ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Modélisation et développement ; Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium ; Research Group Climate Change and Security, Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany ; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
Arslan, E. Seda ; Faculty of Architecture, Department of Landscape Architecture, Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
Kamer Aksoy, Özgür ; Aydın Adnan Menderes University, Aydın, Turkey
Choobchian, Shahla ; Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
Nooghabi, Saeedeh Nazari; Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Ministry of Agricultural-Jahad, Tehran, Iran
Stefanie, Horatiu Ioan; Faculty of Environmental Science and Engineering, Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
Language :
English
Title :
Predicting the distribution of European Hop Hornbeam: application of MaxEnt algorithm and climatic suitability models
Publication date :
June 2023
Journal title :
European Journal of Forest Research
ISSN :
1612-4669
eISSN :
1612-4677
Publisher :
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
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