Playing vaccine roulette: Why the current strategy of staking everything on Covid-19 vaccines is a high-stakes wager.

[en] - The global community has disproportionately invested in vaccines to fight Covid-19. - This is at the expense of alternative strategies and health system strengthening. - Social determinants and co-morbidities should be factored as part of any response strategy. - Risk-benefit analysis and the precaution principle should guide vaccination policy. A more diversified response to Covid-19 and future diseases should be adopted.

Disciplines :

Public health, health care sciences & services

Author, co-author :

Paul, Elisabeth ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences sociales > Sociologie du développement

Brown, Garrett W.

Kalk, Andreas

Ridde, Valéry

Language :

English

Title :

Playing vaccine roulette: Why the current strategy of staking everything on Covid-19 vaccines is a high-stakes wager.

Publication date :

2021

Journal title :

Vaccine

ISSN :

0264-410X

eISSN :

1873-2518

Publisher :

Elsevier, Netherlands

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Additional URL :

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X21009233

Available on ORBi :

since 02 August 2021

Statistics

Number of views

207 (2 by ULiège)

Number of downloads

115 (2 by ULiège)

More statistics

Scopus citations^®

Scopus citations^®
without self-citations

OpenCitations

Bibliography

Collateral Global. A regular publication analysing the global impact of COVID-19 restrictions [Internet]. Available from: https://collateralglobal.org/.
PharmaNews. COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard [Internet]. 2021 [cited 202AD Jul 12]. Available from: https://pharmanews.linksbridge.com/Covid-19.
World Health Organization. Access to COVID-19 tools funding commitment tracker [Internet]. 2021 [cited 2021 Jul 12]. Available from: https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/access-to-covid-19-tools-tracker.
World Health Organization. Vaccines and immunization [Internet]. Available from: https://www.who.int/health-topics/vaccines-and-immunization#tab=tab_1.
Polack, F.P., Thomas, S.J., Kitchin, N., Absalon, J., Gurtman, A., Lockhart, S., et al. Safety and efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine. N Engl J Med 383:27 (2020), 2603–2615.
Baden, L.R., El Sahly, H.M., Essink, B., Kotloff, K., Frey, S., Novak, R., et al. Efficacy and Safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine. N Engl J Med 384:5 (2021), 403–416.
Voysey, M., Clemens, S.A.C., Madhi, S.A., Weckx, L.Y., Folegatti, P.M., Aley, P.K., et al. Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK. The Lancet 397:10269 (2021), 99–111.
Sadoff, J., Gray, G., Vandebosch, A., Cárdenas, V., Shukarev, G., Grinsztejn, B., et al. Safety and efficacy of single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine against Covid-19. N Engl J Med 384:23 (2021), 2187–2201.
Al Kaabi, N., Zhang, Y., Xia, S., Yang, Y., Al Qahtani, M.M., Abdulrazzaq, N., et al. Effect of 2 inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccines on symptomatic COVID-19 infection in adults: a randomized clinical trial. JAMA 326:1 (2021), 35–45.
Logunov, D.Y., Dolzhikova, I.V., Shcheblyakov, D.V., Tukhvatulin, A.I., Zubkova, O.V., Dzharullaeva, A.S., et al. Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: an interim analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia. The Lancet 397:10275 (2021), 671–681.
Craig P, Di Ruggiero E, Frohlich K, Mykhalovskiy E, White M. Taking account of context in population health intervention research: guidance for producers, users and funders of research [Internet]. Southampton: on behalf of the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR)–National Institute for Health Research (NIHR); 2018. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK498645/pdf/Bookshelf_NBK498645.pdf.
Harrington, D.P., Baden, L.R., Hogan, J.W., A large, simple trial leading to complex questions. N Engl J Med(Dec), 2020, 10.1056/NEJMe2034294.
Doshi, P., Will covid-19 vaccines save lives? Current trials aren't designed to tell us. BMJ, 21(371), 2020, m4037.
Doshi P. Clarification: Pfizer and Moderna's “95% effective” vaccines—we need more details and the raw data [Internet]. The BMJ Opinion. 2021 [cited 2021 Apr 12]. Available from: https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/02/05/clarification-pfizer-and-modernas-95-effective-vaccines-we-need-more-details-and-the-raw-data/.
Ledford, H., Cyranoski, D., Van Noorden, R., The UK has approved a COVID vaccine - here's what scientists now want to know. Nature 588:7837 (2020), 205–206.
Flores, L.E., Frontera, W.R., Andrasik, M.P., del Rio, C., Mondríguez-González, A., Price, S.A., et al. Assessment of the inclusion of racial/ethnic minority, female, and older individuals in vaccine clinical trials. JAMA Netw Open, 4(2), 2021 e2037640.
Associated Press. Britain investigates possible allergic reactions to Pfizer's COVID-19 shot. Los Angeles Times [Internet]. 2020 Dec 9; Available from: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-12-09/uk-investigates-possible-allergic-reactions-covid-19-vaccine.
Ledford, H., Why COVID vaccines are so difficult to compare. Nature, 591(16–17), 2021 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00409-0.
Ioannidis, J.P.A., Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data. Bull World Health Organ, 2020 https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf.
Mallapaty, S., Vaccines are curbing COVID: Data from Israel show drop in infections. Nature, 590(197), 2021 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00316-4?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=700127432c-briefing-dy-20210205&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-700127432c-45689842.
Jara, A., Undurraga, E.A., González, C., Paredes, F., Fontecilla, T., Jara, G., et al. Effectiveness of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in Chile. [cited 2021 Jul 12] N Engl J Med, 2021, 10.1056/NEJMoa2107715.
Keehner, J., Horton, L.E., Pfeffer, M.A., Longhurst, C.A., Schooley, R.T., Currier, J.S., et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection after vaccination in health care workers in California. N Engl J Med 384:18 (2021), 1774–1775.
Mallapaty, S., Can COVID vaccines stop transmission? Scientists race to find answers. Nature(Feb), 2021.
Bailly, B., Guilpain, L., Bouiller, K., Chirouze, C., N'Debi, M., Soulier, A., et al. BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination did not prevent an outbreak of SARS COV-2 variant 501Y.V2 in an elderly nursing home but reduced transmission and disease severity. Clin Infect Dis Off Publ Infect Dis Soc Am(May), 2021.
Madhi, S.A., Baillie, V., Cutland, C.L., Voysey, M., Koen, A.L., Fairlie, L., et al. Efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Covid-19 Vaccine against the B.1.351 Variant. N Engl J Med 384:20 (2021), 1885–1898.
Ledford, H., Six months of COVID vaccines: what 1.7 billion doses have taught scientists. Nature, 594(164–167), 2021 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01505-x?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=6b35e184ca-briefing-dy-20210607&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-6b35e184ca-45689842.
Aschwanden, C., Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible. Nature, 591(520–522), 2021 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2.
Kostoff, R.N., Kanduc, D., Porter, A.L., Shoenfeld, Y., Calina, D., Briggs, M.B., et al. Vaccine- and natural infection-induced mechanisms that could modulate vaccine safety. Toxicol Rep 7 (2020), 1448–1458.
Domingo Esteban, Perales Celia, Sandri-Goldin Rozanne M. The Time for COVID-19 Vaccination. J Virol 2021 25 March; 95(8):e02437-20.
Remmel, A., COVID vaccines and safety: what the research says. Nature, 590(538–540), 2021 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00290-x?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=5eb3714930-briefing-dy-20210217&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-5eb3714930-45689842.
Rodriguez Mega, E., Trust in COVID vaccines is growing. Nature, 2021 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00368-6.
Cardozo, T., Veazey, R., Informed consent disclosure to vaccine trial subjects of risk of COVID-19 vaccines worsening clinical disease. Int J Clin Pract, 2020, e13795.
Neumann-Böhme, S., Varghese, N.E., Sabat, I., Barros, P.P., Brouwer, W., van Exel, J., et al. Once we have it, will we use it? A European survey on willingness to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Eur J Health Econ 21:7 (2020), 977–982.
Lazarus, J.V., Ratzan, S.C., Palayew, A., Gostin, L.O., Larson, H.J., Rabin, K., et al. A global survey of potential acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine. Nat Med(Oct), 2020, 10.1038/s41591-020-1124-9.
McCartney, M., We need better evidence on non-drug interventions for covid-19. BMJ, 370(Sep), 2020, m3473.
Bavli, I., Sutton, B., Galea, S., Harms of public health interventions against covid-19 must not be ignored. BMJ, 371(Nov), 2020, m4074.
Turcotte-Tremblay, A.-M., Gali Gali, I.A., Ridde, V., The unintended consequences of COVID-19 mitigation measures matter: practical guidance for investigating them. BMC Med Res Methodol, 21(1), 2021, 28.
Cambon, L., Bergeron, H., Castel, P., Ridde, V., Alla, F., When the worldwide response to the COVID-19 pandemic is done without health promotion. Glob Health Promot 28:2 (2021), 3–6.
Nelde, A., Bilich, T., Heitmann, J.S., Maringer, Y., Salih, H.R., Roerden, M., et al. SARS-CoV-2-derived peptides define heterologous and COVID-19-induced T cell recognition. Nat Immunol 22:1 (2021), 74–85.
Paul, E., Brown, G.W., Kalk, A., Van Damme, W., Ridde, V., Sturmberg, J.P., “When My Information Changes, I Alter My Conclusions”. What Can We Learn from the Failures to Adaptively Respond to the SARS-Cov-2 Pandemic and the Under Preparedness of Health Systems to Manage COVID-19?. Int J Health Policy Manag, 2020.
Sturmberg, J.P., Health system redesign. How to make health care person-centered, equitable, and sustainable, 2018, Springer, Cham, Switzerland.
Whitmee, S., Haines, A., Beyrer, C., Boltz, F., Capon, A.G., de Souza Dias, B.F., et al. Safeguarding human health in the Anthropocene epoch: report of The Rockefeller Foundation-Lancet Commission on planetary health. The Lancet 386:10007 (2015), 1973–2028.
Swinburn, B.A., Kraak, V.I., Allender, S., Atkins, V.J., Baker, P.I., Bogard, J.R., et al. The global syndemic of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change: the lancet commission report. Lancet Lond Engl 393:10173 (2019), 791–846.
Meltzer, D.O., Best, T.J., Zhang, H., Vokes, T., Arora, V., Solway, J., Association of Vitamin D status and other clinical characteristics with COVID-19 test results. JAMA Netw Open, 3(9), 2020 e2019722.
Vaughn, V.M., Yost, M., Abshire, C., Flanders, S.A., Paje, D., Grant, P., et al. Trends in Venous Thromboembolism Anticoagulation in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19. JAMA Netw Open, 4(6), 2021 e2111788.
The WHO Rapid Evidence Appraisal for COVID-19 Therapies (REACT) Working Group. Association Between Administration of IL-6 Antagonists and Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: A Meta-analysis. JAMA [Internet]. 2021 Jul 6 [cited 2021 Dec 7]; Available from: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.11330.
Hill A, Garratt A, Levi J, Falconer J, Ellis L, McCann K, et al. Meta-analysis of randomized trials of ivermectin to treat SARS-CoV-2 infection. Open Forum Infect Dis [Internet]. 2021 Jul 6 [cited 2021 Dec 7];(ofab358). Available from: https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofab358.
Hipgrave, D.B., Kampo, A., Pearson, L., Health systems in the ACT-A. The Lancet 397:10280 (2021), 1181–1182.
Michel, J., Sauter, T.C., Tanner, M., What does a pandemic proof health system look like?. Glob Health Action, 14(1), 2021, 1927315.
Wang, Z., Yang, X., Zhong, J., Zhou, Y., Tang, Z., Zhou, H., et al. Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 generates T-cell memory in the absence of a detectable viral infection. Nat Commun, 12(1), 2021, 1724.
He, Z., Ren, L., Yang, J., Guo, L., Feng, L., Ma, C., et al. Seroprevalence and humoral immune durability of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Wuhan, China: a longitudinal, population-level, cross-sectional study. The Lancet 397:10279 (2021), 1075–1084.