Article (Scientific journals)
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach
Verjans, Vincent; Leeson, A.A; McMillan, M. et al.
2021In Geophysical Research Letters
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Keywords :
Antarctic; firn
Abstract :
[en] Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea‐level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992‐2017. Using statistical emulation of firn‐densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2–1.0 cm yr‐1 (15–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modelled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step towards more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Verjans, Vincent
Leeson, A.A
McMillan, M.
Stevens, C.M.
van Wessem, J.M.
van de Berg, W.J.
Kittel, Christoph  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
Amory, Charles 
Fettweis, Xavier  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie
Hansen, N.
Boberg, F.
Mottram, R.
Language :
English
Title :
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach
Publication date :
2021
Journal title :
Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN :
0094-8276
eISSN :
1944-8007
Publisher :
Wiley, Washington, United States - District of Columbia
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Tags :
CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif
Funders :
CÉCI - Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif [BE]
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