[en] The main goal of this PhD research is to investigate the expected flood damage for future urban patterns at different scales. Four main steps are followed to accomplish this goal. In the first step, a retrospective analysis is performed for the evolution of the urban development in Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Afterward, two land use change models, cellular automata-based, and agent-based are proposed and compared. Based on this comparison, the agent-based model is employed to simulate future urbanization scenarios. An important feature of this research is evident in the consideration of the multiple densities of built-up areas, which enables to study both expansion and densification processes. As the model simulates urbanization up to 2100, forecasting land use change over such time frames entails very significant uncertainties. In this regard, uncertainty in land use change models has been considered. In the third step, 24 urbanization scenarios that differed in terms of spatial policies and urbanization rate are generated. The simulated scenarios have then been integrated with a hydrological model. The results suggest that urban development will continue within flood-prone zones in a number of scenarios. Therefore, in the fourth and last step, a procedural urban generation system is developed to analyze the respective influence of various urban layout characteristics on inundation flow, which assists in designing flood-resistant urban layouts within the flood-prone zones.
Research Center/Unit :
LEMA-Urban and Environmental Engineering Dept.
Disciplines :
Engineering, computing & technology: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Author, co-author :
Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed El Saeid ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > LEMA (Local environment management and analysis)
Language :
English
Title :
Spatiotemporal modeling of interactions between urbanization and flood risk: a multi-level approach
Defense date :
28 February 2018
Institution :
ULiège - Université de Liège
Degree :
Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering and Technology Sciences
Promotor :
Teller, Jacques ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département ArGEnCo > Urbanisme et aménagement du territoire
President :
Dewals, Benjamin ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Urban and Environmental Engineering
Jury member :
Cools, Mario ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Urban and Environmental Engineering
This thesis was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions for project number 13/17-01 entitled "Land-use change and future flood risk: influence of micro-scale spatial patterns (FloodLand)" financed by the French Community of Belgium (Wallonia-Brussels Federation).