[en] Understanding the potential drought characteristics under climate change is essential for reducing
<br />vulnerability and establishing adaptation strategies, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain) which is the grain production base in China. In this paper, the variation of drought characteristics including drought event frequency, duration, severity and intensity for the past 50 years (1961-2010) and future scenarios (2010-2099) based on observed meteorological data and RCP 8.5 projections were investigated, respectively. Firstly, the applicability of three climatic drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index based on the Penman–Monteith equation (SPEI-PM) and the Thornthwaite equation (SPEI-TH) were compared in tracing recorded agricultural drought areas. Then, the drought characteristics including drought event, duration, severity and intensity using “run theory” was analyzed for both historical observations and future RCP 8.5 scenarios based on the proper index. Correlation analysis between drought indexes and agricultural drought areas showed that SPEI-PM performed better than SPI and SPEI-TH in the 3H Plain. Based on the results of SPEI-PM, droughts over the past 50 years have experienced reduced drought with shorter durations, and weaker severity and intensity. However, for the future RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is predicted to rise in frequency, duration, severity and intensity from 2010-2099 although drought components during the 2010-2039 were milder compared to historical conditions. This study highlights that the estimations for atmospheric evaporative demand would bring in differences in long term drought trend of drought indexes and consequently the applicability in 3H Plain. The results of this paper can help inform researchers and local policy makers to establish drought risk management strategies.
Centre/Unité de recherche :
TERRA Teaching and Research Centre - TERRA BIOSE - Ingénierie des Bio‐Systèmes - ULiège
Disciplines :
Agriculture & agronomie
Auteur, co-auteur :
Li, Xiangxiang; Key Laboratory of Dryland Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China ; Agro-meteorological Center of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330096, P.R.China
Ju, Hui; Key Laboratory of Dryland Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
Garré, Sarah ; Université de Liège > Ingénierie des biosystèmes (Biose) > Echanges Eau-Sol-Plantes
Yan, Changrong; Key Laboratory of Dryland Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China
William, D.batchelor; Biosystems Engineering Department, Auburn University, AL 36849, USA
Liu, Qin ; Université de Liège - ULg ; Key Laboratory of Dryland Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, P.R.China > Doct. sc. agro. & ingé. biol. (Paysage)
Langue du document :
Anglais
Titre :
Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario
Date de publication/diffusion :
octobre 2017
Titre du périodique :
Journal of Integrative Agriculture
ISSN :
2095-3119
eISSN :
2352-3425
Maison d'édition :
Elsevier Science
Volume/Tome :
16
Fascicule/Saison :
10
Pagination :
2308-2322
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed vérifié par ORBi
Organisme subsidiant :
National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (2012CB955904), the 12th five-year plan of the National Key Technologies R&D Program (2012BAD09B01), and the National Science Foundation for Young Scientists of China (41401510)
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