Article (Scientific journals)
Investigating Effect of Holidays on Daily Traffic Counts: Time Series Approach
Cools, Mario; Moons, Elke; Wets, Geert
2007In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2019, p. 22-31
Peer reviewed
 

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Abstract :
[en] In this paper, different modeling philosophies are explored in order to explain and forecast daily traffic counts. The main objectives of this study are the analysis of the impact of holidays on daily traffic, and the forecasting of future traffic counts. Data coming from single inductive loop detectors, collected in 2003, 2004 and 2005, were used for the analysis. The different models that were investigated showed that the variation in daily traffic counts could be explained by weekly cycles. The Box-Tiao modeling approach was applied to quantify the effect of holidays on daily traffic. The results showed that traffic counts were significantly lower for holiday periods. When the different modeling techniques were compared with respect to forecasting with a large forecast horizon, Box-Tiao modeling clearly outperformed the other modeling strategies. Simultaneous modeling of both the underlying reasons of travel, and revealed traffic patterns, certainly is a challenge for further research.
Research center :
Lepur : Centre de Recherche sur la Ville, le Territoire et le Milieu rural - ULiège
LEMA - Local Environment Management and Analysis
Disciplines :
Civil engineering
Special economic topics (health, labor, transportation...)
Author, co-author :
Cools, Mario  ;  Universiteit Hasselt - UH
Moons, Elke;  Universiteit Hasselt - UH
Wets, Geert;  Universiteit Hasselt - UH
Language :
English
Title :
Investigating Effect of Holidays on Daily Traffic Counts: Time Series Approach
Publication date :
2007
Journal title :
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
ISSN :
0361-1981
eISSN :
2169-4052
Publisher :
U.S. National Research Council, Washington, United States - District of Columbia
Volume :
2019
Pages :
22-31
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
Available on ORBi :
since 25 October 2012

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