2011 • In Abesser, C.; Nutzmann, G.; Hill, M.et al. (Eds.) Conceptual and Modelling Studies of Integrated Groundwater, Surface Water, and Ecological Systems
[en] Many studies have highlighted that climate change will have a negative impact on groundwater. However, in previous studies, the estimation of uncertainty around projections was very limited. In this study, the impact of climate change on groundwater resources is estimated for the Geer basin using a surface–subsurface integrated model. The uncertainties around impact projections are evaluated from three different sources. The uncertainty linked to the climate model is assessed with six contrasted RCMs and two GCMs. The uncertainty linked to the natural variability of the weather is evaluated thanks to a weather generator which enables production of a large number of equiprobable climatic scenarios. The uncertainty linked to the calibration of the hydrological model is assessed by a coupling with UCODE_2005 and by performing a complete linear uncertainty analysis on predictions. A linear analysis is approximate for this nonlinear system, but provides some measure of uncertainty for this computationally demanding model. Results for this study show that the uncertainty linked to the hydrological model is the most important.
Research center :
Aquapôle - ULiège
Disciplines :
Geological, petroleum & mining engineering
Author, co-author :
Goderniaux, Pascal ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département Argenco : Secteur GEO3 > Hydrogéologie & Géologie de l'environnement
Brouyère, Serge ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département Argenco : Secteur GEO3 > Hydrogéologie & Géologie de l'environnement
Orban, Philippe ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département Argenco : Secteur GEO3 > Hydrogéologie & Géologie de l'environnement
Wildemeersch, Samuel ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département Argenco : Secteur GEO3 > Hydrogéologie & Géologie de l'environnement
Dassargues, Alain ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département Argenco : Secteur GEO3 > Hydrogéologie & Géologie de l'environnement
Language :
English
Title :
Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater resources considering various uncertainty sources
Publication date :
July 2011
Event name :
IUGG 2011 - Symposium H01: Conceptual and Modelling Studies of Integrated Groundwater, Surface Water, and Ecological Systems (Symposium H01 IUGG2011)
Event organizer :
IAHS
Event place :
Melbourne, Australia
Event date :
July 2011
Audience :
International
Main work title :
Conceptual and Modelling Studies of Integrated Groundwater, Surface Water, and Ecological Systems
Editor :
Abesser, C.
Nutzmann, G.
Hill, M.
Bloschl, G.
Lakshmanan, E.
Publisher :
IAHS Press, Wallingford, United Kingdom
Collection name :
345
Pages :
139-144
Peer reviewed :
Peer reviewed
Funders :
F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique [BE]
Allen, D. M., Mackie, D. C. & Wei, M. (2004) Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada. Hydrogeol. J. 12(3), 270-290. (Pubitemid 38964732)
Brouyère, S. (2001) Etude et modélisation du transport et du piégeage des solutés en milieu souterrain variablement saturé (Study and modelling of transport and retardation of solutes in variably saturated media). PhD Thesis, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.
Brouyère, S. (2006) Modelling the migration of contaminants through variably saturated dual-porosity, dual-permeability chalk. J. Contaminant Hydrol. 82, 195-219. (Pubitemid 43011314)
Christensen, J. H., Carter, T. R., Rummukainen, M. & Amanatidis, G. (2007) Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project. Climatic Change 81(Supplement 1), 1-6. (Pubitemid 46716672)
Goderniaux, P. (2010) Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Reserves. PhD Thesis, University of Liege, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Liege, Belgium.
Goderniaux, P., Brouyere, S., Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S., Therrien, R., Orban, P. & Dassargues, A. (2009) Large scale surface-subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves. J. Hydrol. 373(1-2),122-138.
Hill, M. C. & Tiedeman, C. R. (2007) Effective Groundwater Model Calibration. With Analysis of Data, Sensitivities, Predictions and Uncertainty. John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey, USA.
Morris, B. L., Lawrence, A. R. L., Chilton, P. J. C, Adams, B., Calow, R. C. & Klinck, B. A. (2003) Groundwater and its Susceptibility to Degradation: A Global Assessment of the Problem and Options for Management. Early Warning and Assessment Report Series, RS. 03-3. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.
Poeter, E. P., Hill, M. C, Banta, E. R., Mehl, S. & Christensen, S. (2005) UCODE-2005 and six other computer codes for universal sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty evaluation. US Geol. Survey Techniques and Methods 6-All.
Van Roosmalen, L., Sonnenborg, T. O. & Jensen, K. H. (2009) Impact of climate and land use change on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. Water Resour. Res. 45.
Wood, A. W., Leung, L. R., Sridhar, V. & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2004) Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Climatic Change 62(1), 189-216. (Pubitemid 38300001)
