Development of the Geer basin Hydrological model for climatic scenarios and first results about impacts evaluation

A surface – subsurface flow numerical model of the Geer basin (465
km²) has been implemented to assess the possible impacts of climate
change on the groundwater resources. This model is physically-based,
spatially-distributed and it integrates totally the groundwater and surface
water. Simulations were performed using 6 climate change scenarios
generated by the University of Newcastle-Upon-Tyne. These scenarios
simulate changes in the amplitude, but also in the frequency and
persistence of some meteorological events. First results show that,
according the implemented flow model and the used climatic scenarios,
significant decreases are expected in the groundwater levels (up to 12
meters) and in the surface water flow rates (reduction between 16% and
32%)