Abstract :
[en] The rapid expansion of photovoltaic (PV) technologies is a cornerstone of global decarbonisation pathways, but it also raises growing concerns regarding future demand for critical metals and the ability of supply systems to respond. Since the beginning of the 21st century, numerous scenarios for PV deployment and associated material demand have been developed by international organisations (e.g. IEA, JRC) and in the scientific literature. These scenarios underpin many assessments of future metal availability and potential supply constraints.
In this context, this study: (i) synthesises key findings from a literature review of scenarios addressing future raw materials demand for PV deployment and associated resource constraints; (ii) discusses the plausibility of overarching projections, including those developed by international institutions, drawing on extensive industrial feedback and (iii) builds on these insights to provide an improved assessment of future raw materials demand and supply risks and opportunities for the PV sector, based on more plausible scenarios.
A systematic literature review conducted using keywords combining “raw materials”, “photovoltaics”, and “criticality assessment” identified 17 relevant studies. Additional insights are derived from an expert-based survey involving approximately 20 specialists from industry, research, and academia, complemented by structured discussions. The survey focuses on expected future PV deployment rates and technology market share dynamics.
Furthermore, the study focuses on indium requirements in the PV sector, associated with its use in indium tin oxide (ITO) layers in perovskite/silicon tandem (PST) and silicon heterojunction (SHJ) architectures. A prospective Material Flow Analysis (MFA) is developed to quantify future indium demand up to 2050 under alternative PV deployment and technology market share scenarios derived from the expert survey. PST and SHJ related parameters are considered, including material intensity, manufacturing improvements, efficiency gains and module lifetime, along with indium recycling rate. Demand for zinc, as the primary host material for indium, is also considered based on future projections from the literature. Outputs from the MFA for indium and projected zinc demand are used as inputs to the Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS) model. PEMMSS is used as a stochastic supply-side model that simulates how mineral and metal supply systems respond to changing demand by explicitly representing exploration, mine development, production expansion, and co-product recovery over time, informed by geological, economic, and temporal data on zinc deposits and indium-bearing resources.
The review highlights significant variability in scenario choices across studies, strongly affecting their results, while the supply side is often simplified through linear extrapolations of current production levels. From the demand side, the level of plausibility introduced from expert-survey allow scenarios considered less feasible to be excluded. The main outcomes from experts refer to: i) global PV deployment is expected to continue growing at very high rates in the near term; ii) PV markets tend to be highly concentrated, with a single dominant technology typically exceeding 70% of installations, and that technology shifts occur abruptly within short timeframes of 2-3 years. Implementing these insights into future scenario modelling, the study discusses about future consequences on production side. The projections of demand and supply of indium and associated zinc production using the PEMMSS model are considered in order to improve understanding of the production required. By explicitly accounting for processes such as mineral exploration, mine development, production capacity expansion, and the associated investment requirements, this approach enables a more realistic representation of how metal supply may evolve in response to rapidly increasing demand.
This study paves the way towards improved future raw materials demand-supply modelling in context of PV large-scale deployment, overall supporting more robust decision-making building on more plausible projections.
