Joumine Basin; Joumine reservoir; Modeling; PEGASE model; Stratification; Water quality; Nitrates; Climate Change; Tunisia; Phytoplankton; Temperature; Nitrates/analysis; Eutrophication; Seasons; Water Quality; Environmental Monitoring; Best Management Practise; Management strategies; Scenarios analysis; Thermal; Environmental Science (all); Pollution; Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Abstract :
[en] This study assesses epilimnion water quality in the Joumine Reservoir, Tunisia, by combining the PEGASE water quality model, the DEOLE-J thermal stratification model, and in situ measurements. Scenario analysis was developed to evaluate how future climate change and watershed management strategies may jointly influence water quality dynamics in semi-arid reservoirs. This multidisciplinary approach highlights the key drivers of nitrate, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, and water temperature, emphasizing the influence of thermocline variability on seasonal ecosystem dynamics. Among these variables, chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) shows the highest uncertainty, with noticeable under- and overestimation depending on the season, reflecting limitations in simulating phytoplankton dynamics. PEGASE reliably simulates hydrological variability at both the catchment (river network) and reservoir scales, as well as nutrient inflows, while reservoir-specific dynamics linked to stratification and phytoplankton required other parameterization. Best Management Practices (BMPs), including agricultural measures such as cover crops, mulching, and reduced nitrogen and phosphorus inputs, were implemented in the scenarios. Scenario analysis revealed strong contrasts between management strategies. Without best management practices (BMPs) (SC1), wet-season nitrate rose by ~ 65% compared to reinforced management (SC3), with peaks above 22 mg/L and episodic eutrophication. Dissolved oxygen generally remained above thresholds but showed localized summer depletion. SC2, representing moderate climate change with partial adaptation (25% BMP adoption and partial wastewater treatment), produced intermediate nitrate and phytoplankton levels, showing partial mitigation and persistent oxygen stress. SC3, combining 75% BMP adoption with 90% advanced wastewater treatment, reduced nitrate loads by 63-66% and limited phytoplankton growth; however, oxygen stress persisted under extreme warming (+ 3.9 °C by 2100), with summer epilimnion temperatures rising ~ 2 °C and intensifying stratification. Climate change will likely worsen eutrophication and oxygen depletion without integrated measures. While BMPs and wastewater treatment reduce nutrient inputs, they cannot fully mitigate oxygen deficits caused by prolonged stratification. Overall, this study demonstrates the applicability of the coupled DEOLE-J and PEGASE models for simulating epilimnion water quality in semi-arid, data-limited contexts, and highlights the importance of implementing stricter nutrient regulations, enhancing wastewater treatment, and increasing monitoring frequency.
Disciplines :
Aquatic sciences & oceanology
Author, co-author :
Madyouni, Haifa ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Freshwater and OCeanic science Unit of reSearch (FOCUS) ; LR 7AGR01 GREEN-TEAM, National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia, Carthage University, 43 Avenue Charles Nicolle, Tunis, 1082, Tunisia
Almanza, Viviana ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences de la vie > Physiologie et génétique bactériennes ; Faculty of Engineering, San Sebastián University, Concepción, Chile
Romdhane, Mohamed Salah; Ecosystems and Aquatic Resources Laboratory, National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia, Carthage University, Tunis, 1082, Tunisia
Habaieb, Hamadi; LR 7AGR01 GREEN-TEAM, National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia, Carthage University, 43 Avenue Charles Nicolle, Tunis, 1082, Tunisia
Deliège, Jean-François ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Freshwater and OCeanic science Unit of reSearch (FOCUS)
Language :
English
Title :
Thermal stratification and epilimnion water quality under climate and management scenarios: the Joumine reservoir (Tunisia).
Publication date :
26 May 2026
Journal title :
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
ISSN :
0167-6369
eISSN :
1573-2959
Publisher :
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, Netherlands
This work was supported by the Aquapole of the University of Li\u00E8ge and the National Agronomy Institute of Tunisia. We extend our warm thanks to the technical teams at the Joumine Dam who participated in the water sampling campaigns. We would also like to thank the Ecosystems and Aquatic Resources Laboratory for their support.This research was funded by Wallonie-Bruxelles International.
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