Spatio-temporal landscape dynamics in northwestern Virunga National Park amid armed conflicts, urban expansion, and agricultural transition

Protected areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, especially Virunga National Park, are crucial for biodiversity conservation. Nevertheless, they face significant challenges, such as the human impact on natural ecosystems caused by agricultural expansion, urbanization, and persistent insecurity. Despite increased concern over these human pressures, few studies have simultaneously explored the links between landscape changes, socioeconomic factors, and urban expansion. This thesis investigates these issues by examining territorial dynamics at multiple scales and the socio-economic processes in north-western Virunga, a region marked by high population growth and ongoing insecurity.
The study provides a comprehensive overview of landscape changes, forest disturbance factors, perceptions, and motivations behind agricultural migration, as well as urban growth in Beni and Butembo. Methodologically, it combines satellite image analysis with household surveys, interviews, and landscape ecology indicators. Land-cover changes and urban expansion patterns were quantified through spatial analysis, while socio-economic data helped explain motivations, perceptions, and adaptive strategies linked to human-induced environmental changes.
Regarding the results, several findings emerge: first, the analysis indicates that since 1995, the landscape change in northwestern Virunga has been primarily driven by the expansion of smallholder farms, leading to landscape fragmentation. However, since 2005, this expansion has slowed, which coincides with passive forest restauration, partly associated with insecurity in farming areas. In this regard, a relative increase in forest areas (~2%) has been observed both globally and around military camps. Nevertheless, despite this partial recovery, forests within the landscape remain threatened by various disturbances. In particular, these include the spread of cash and food crops outside the park and timber extraction and charcoal production within the park.
Additionally, the analysis perception of households on shifting cultivation reveals an important transition: it is no longer driven solely by the search for fallow land but reflects a more complex decision-making process involving soil fertility, investment in cash crops, and resilience to face insecurity. Turning to urban dynamics, the result indicated urban expansion is rapid but varies between Beni and Butembo, with security playing a greater role than population growth. While Butembo’s growth is more consistent, while Beni, despite rapid population increases, is growing more slowly due to insecurity. Overall, this study emphasizes the key role of Virunga National Park in preventing deforestation in Beni region, highlights the unpredictable impact of insecurity on ecosystems. Therefore, it underscores the need for land-use planning that balances agricultural intensification with forest conservation. It also stresses the importance of anticipating human-environmental interactions in a post-conflict context.