Spatiotemporal supply-demand matching in residential building rooftop photovoltaics (PV) under climate change: a cross-climate zone assessment

Duan, Zhuocheng; Attia, Shady; Omrany, Hossein; Chang, Ruidong; Zuo, Jian

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.128210

Article (Scientific journals)

Spatiotemporal supply-demand matching in residential building rooftop photovoltaics (PV) under climate change: a cross-climate zone assessment

Duan, Zhuocheng; Attia, Shady; Omrany, Hossein et al.

2026 • In Applied Energy, 421, p. 128210

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

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https://hdl.handle.net/2268/346230

DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.128210

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Keywords :

Self-sufficiency; Self-consumption; Heating and cooling demand; Solar renewable energy; Zero energy buildings; Carbon emissions

Abstract :

[en] The building sector accounts for over one-third of global energy use and emissions, making on-site renewable generation critical for climate neutrality. Rooftop photovoltaics (PV) can reduce reliance on fossil fuels, yet climate change alters both building energy demand and PV output, creating poorly understood spatiotemporal mismatches. To bridge this gap, this study employed a multi-scale temporal analysis across 27 cities representing all ASHRAE climate zones, integrating extreme event assessment with traditional annual metrics to reveal unique PV-demand matching dynamics. A single-storey residential building with 10.08 kW rooftop PV was simulated via Ladybug tools (EnergyPlus engine) in Rhino under baseline, SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios (2050, 2080) to analyze self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) and self-consumption ratio (SCR) at annual, monthly and daily scales. Under SSP585_2080, extreme hot regions (Zone 0) face compound vulnerabilities: energy demand rises 33.6–38.5% while PV output changes marginally (−2.5% to 4.0%), reducing SSR from 48.2–50.9% (baseline) to 46.5–49.0%, despite SCR increases to 62.1–76.3%. Cool and cold regions in Zones 5–6 benefit from 11.3–19.5% demand reductions (SSP585_2080) but remain limited by winter generation, with SSR constrained at 24.0–35.6% under the same scenario. Monthly analysis exposes seasonal asymmetries with high-latitude (Zones 6–8) winter SSR typically below 15% despite warming. Most critically, extreme-event analysis exposed up to fourfold increases in energy deficits during extreme heat events in tropical zones and confirmed the expected zero PV generation during polar nights, a fundamental limitation that persists despite warming and that annual metrics consistently obscure. Sensitivity analysis examining building envelope performance variations and PV system capacity changes confirmed climate-driven performance patterns. These findings demonstrate heterogeneous climate change impacts that fundamentally challenge universal renewable energy targets, necessitating coordinated strategies combining demand-side interventions, climate-specific renovation and supplementary energy sources to address inherent solar limitations. Such insights provide essential guidance for renewable energy policy development and urban energy planning.

Disciplines :

Architecture

Author, co-author :

Duan, Zhuocheng

Attia, Shady ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Urban and Environmental Engineering

Omrany, Hossein

Chang, Ruidong

Zuo, Jian

Language :

English

Title :

Spatiotemporal supply-demand matching in residential building rooftop photovoltaics (PV) under climate change: a cross-climate zone assessment

Publication date :

15 October 2026

Journal title :

Applied Energy

ISSN :

0306-2619

eISSN :

1872-9118

Publisher :

Elsevier, London, United Kingdom

Volume :

421

Pages :

128210

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Development Goals :

11. Sustainable cities and communities
13. Climate action

Additional URL :

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261926008640

Available on ORBi :

since 20 June 2026

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