Water supply securing in Bouregreg Basin under a changing climate

Climate change impacts on water resources are being felt in a pronounced way, especially in the Mediterranean region with a faster pace of warming and an increasing frequency and severity of droughts. This context necessitates adopting proactive adaptation strategies that would increase water systems resilience over time using simulation models. This study employs RIBASIM model to assess water security in Morocco's Bouregreg basin under climate change and growing demands. It also discusses options of adaptation and water supply security in the future. Results show that public water supply from the SMBA-Tiddas complex could decrease by 25-36% (222.7 - 190.5-vs. 297.7 MCM/y for the reference scenario) under 30-40% inflow reduction scenarios, with irrigation water supply falling 36% (12.8 vs 20 MCM/y). Through the further analysis, the Casablanca desalination project and Sebou-Bouregreg interbasin transfer emerge as crucial adaptation measures in terms of securing the future water demand of the basin (2050) and increase of its resilience. This analysis provides a framework for climate-resilient water planning in semi-arid regions.