Belgian Electrcity Grid Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors (1950-2050)

This report presents a rigorous historical reconstruction and forward projection of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of delivered electricity inwh Belgium, covering the period 1950 to 2050. The reconstruction is designed for use in Module B6 operational emissions calculations within whole-life carbon (WLC) assessments of residential buildings, in compliance with EN 15978, ISO 14040, and ISO 14044 Whole Life Carton methodology. Lifecycle emission factors are derived for twenty-two reference years using a weighted average of technology-specific lifecycle GHG intensities (IPCC AR5 WG3 Annex III) applied to reconstructed Belgian generation mixes. Sources follow a strict evidence hierarchy: Belgian Nuclear Forum direct statistical statements, IEA country energy policy reviews, Elia transmission system operator annual statistics, Eurostat energy balances, European Environment Agency GHG intensity indicators, and Ember global electricity data. The central results show that Belgian grid carbon intensity fell from approximately 760 gCO2e/kWh in 1950 (coal and oil dominant) to 145 gCO2e/kWh in 2025 (nuclear and renewables dominant), an 81% reduction driven overwhelmingly by the nuclear commissioning programme of 1975 to 1985. Forward projections to 2050 are aligned with the Elia Blueprint 2035 to 2050, the PATHS2050 EnergyVille Central Scenario, and the Belgian National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) 2021 to 2030, yielding a projected intensity of approximately 34 gCO2e/kWh by 2050. Parametric uncertainty ranges are provided for each reference year (P5 to P95). Confidence classes range from A for 2020 to 2025 (multiple corroborating real-time datasets) to C for the 1950 to 1960 period and the 2045 to 2050 projections (high scenario uncertainty). The dataset is fully traceable and calculation-ready.