[en] We present updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60°S-60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ∼ 1–3 % per decade, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, −1 to −2 % per decade, in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant. The morphology and magnitude of ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends).
Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by chemistry-climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes.
Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets.
Analyses of regional ozone profile trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.
Research Center/Unit :
SPHERES - ULiège
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Sofieva, Viktoria; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Szelag, Monika; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Kramarova, Natalya; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA
Damadeo, Robert; NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, USA
Petropavlovskikh, Irina; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES), University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, USA ; NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, USA
Vigouroux, Corinne; Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), Uccle, Belgium
Barras, Eliane; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Payerne, Switzerland
Zawada, Daniel; Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
Frith, Stacey; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA ; Adnet Systems, Inc, Lanham, USA
Wild, Jeannette; Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC/CISESS), University of Maryland, College Park, USA ; NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), NOAA, College Park, USA
Davis, Sean; NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, USA
Arosio, Carlo; Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Weber, Mark; Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Rozanov, Alexei; Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Auffarth, Brian; Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Froidevaux, Lucien; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA
Fuller, Ryan; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA
Degenstein, Doug; Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
Dube, Kimberlee; Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
Effertz, Peter; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES), University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, USA ; NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, USA
Leblanc, Thierry; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Wrightwood, USA
Mcconville, Glen; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science (CIRES), University of Colorado-Boulder, Boulder, USA ; NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder, USA
Querel, Richard; New Zealand Institute for Earth Science Limited, Lauder, New Zealand
Smale, Dan; New Zealand Institute for Earth Science Limited, Lauder, New Zealand
Debacker, Marie-Renee; Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, Reims, France
Mahieu, Emmanuel ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophysique, géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Groupe infra-rouge de physique atmosphérique et solaire (GIRPAS)
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