Multi-Scale Wind-Solar Energy Assessment with Infrastructure Cost Integration: A Case Study of Bolivia

The global energy transition faces challenges in regions lacking renewable energy generation potential data, as the absence of this information affects long-term strategic planning. In respond to this issue, a methodology was developed in this study to evaluate wind and solar photovoltaic potential in Bolivia. The approach combines Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data for spatial analysis, the atlite model for high-resolution resource assessment, and the EnergyScope Multicell model for regional energy system optimization.
The methodological innovation involves extending the atlite framework to perform levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) calculations that incorporate infrastructure costs, including transmission lines, substations, and road accessibility. This overcomes a common limitation in renewable assessment models, which usually provide technical resource potentials but lack an integrated economic analysis with infrastructure considerations. Moreover, the method also corrects the bias in ERA5 datasets for Bolivia’s complex mountainous terrain by integrating data from the Global Wind and Solar Atlases. After applying exclusion criteria for protected areas, topography, and existing energy infrastructure, the results identified 7,263 sites (of aproximately 10 km × 10 km), yieling an economic potential of 28.94 TW regarding utility-scale PV and 3,006 sites leading to econocomic potential of 2.04 TW for wind onshore across the country. These values were used as inputs for a 21-cell EnergyScope Multicell model representing Bolivia’s regional energy system architecture. Finally, the optimization reveals a power mix to meet Bolivia’s
future energy demand, projecting a cost-effective installed capacity of 1.45 GW for PV and 1.29 GW for wind by 2050. In this way, the integrated methodology followed closes the gap between high-resolution spatial analysis and national-level energy planning, providing decision-support tools for renewable energy transition planning in developing countries with complex
geographies, significant regional disparities and fragmented energy infrastructure.