Grassland vulnerability to climate change varies by region and season through productivity-stability trade-offs

Climate scenarios; Cutting management; Forage yield; Interannual variability; Plant functional types; Process-based modeling; Agronomy and Crop Science; Soil Science; Plant Science

Abstract :

[en] Understanding the vulnerability of permanent grasslands to climate change is essential for sustaining forage production and other ecosystem services. Potential adaptation levers include adjustments in management strategies and the selection of plant functional types (PFTs). This study quantifies changes in biomass yield and interannual stability of temperate permanent grasslands under future climate scenarios, using Gras-Sim, a process-based model integrating climate, soil management, and PFT composition. Simulations were performed for contrasting agricultural regions at +2 °C, +3 °C, and +4 °C warming levels, using downscaled CMIP6 projections (CMCC, MIR, MPI) with corresponding CO2 trajectories. Significant interactions between region, climate model, and PFT (P < 0.001) revealed context-dependent responses. In high-altitude regions such as the High Ardennes, annual yields increased by up to 2.52 t DM ha−1 compared to the historical baseline (1981–2010). Across all scenarios, PFT B (e.g. Dactylis glomerata) exhibited significantly higher yields, while PFT A (e.g. Lolium perenne) showed significantly higher interannual stability, confirming a productivity-stability trade-off. Seasonal shifts were more pronounced under MIR + 4 °C, with spring yields increasing by 4.5 t DM ha−1 and summer yields decreasing by 2.4 t DM ha−1 relative to historical baselines (P < 0.001). The frequency of pixel-years without a summer cut increased up to 14 % under MIR at + 4 °C, highlighting an emergent signal of production collapse during peak drought. These results support the need for adaptation strategies that combine functional complementarity, flexible management, and spatially explicit simulation tools to sustain grassland productivity and stability under climate change.

Disciplines :

Agriculture & agronomy
Animal production & animal husbandry

Author, co-author :

Kokah, Essomandan Urbain ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département GxABT > Animal Sciences (AS)

Lacroix, Christophe ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département GxABT > Plant Sciences

Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

Knoden, David; Fourrages Mieux ASBL, Bastogne, Belgium

Dumont, Benjamin ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Plant Sciences

Bindelle, Jérôme ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département GxABT > Animal Sciences (AS)

Language :

English

Title :

Grassland vulnerability to climate change varies by region and season through productivity-stability trade-offs

Publication date :

April 2026

Journal title :

European Journal of Agronomy

ISSN :

1161-0301

Publisher :

Elsevier B.V.

Volume :

175

Pages :

128032

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Additional URL :

https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1161030126000511?httpAccept=text/xml

Available on ORBi :

since 24 April 2026

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