[en] Process-based cropping systems models (CSMs) are key components of measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification frameworks of carbon markets, but model-specific differences limit their applicability across diverse pedo-climatic conditions and agronomic practices. Multi-model ensemble (MME) provides an opportunity to better estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agronomic practices at scale. We used an MME across 46 million hectares of US Midwest cropland at a resolution of 4-km2 to assess the aggregate ability of different regenerative practices to sequester SOC and N2O emissions compared to their counterfactual dynamic baselines. MME was validated against long-term trials and compared to its constituent CSMs, showing greater accuracy and lower uncertainty. The results show that adopting no-till combined with cover crops increased SOC stocks by 0.36 ± 0.12 Mg ha-1 yr-1, corresponding to a net regional SOC gain of 16.4 Tg C yr-1 compared to business-as-usual baselines. These benefits are halved when each management is practiced individually, and the SOC gains are only fully realized with low initial carbon stock. By including N₂O emissions, we can assess the overall climate mitigation potential, specifically, the extent to which carbon sequestration can offset direct N2O emissions. The magnitude of this potential varies depending on management practices and geographic location with net climate benefits on average ranging from 0 to 3 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1. High-resolution MME results allow for robust estimates of climate mitigation, reducing barriers to carbon market participation and supporting regenerative agriculture initiatives at scale.
Disciplines :
Agriculture & agronomy
Author, co-author :
Basso, Bruno; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA. basso@msu.edu ; W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, 49060, USA. basso@msu.edu ; DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA. basso@msu.edu
Tadiello, Tommaso; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA. tadiell1@msu.edu
Millar, Neville; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA
Robertson, G Philip; W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, 49060, USA ; DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA ; Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA
Paustian, Keith; Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 80521, USA ; Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 80523, USA
Maureira, Fidel S; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA
Albarenque, Susana; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA
Baer, Brian; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA
Price, Lydia; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA
Sharma, Prateek; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA
Villalobos, Chris; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA
Fowler, Ames; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, 48824, USA ; Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 80521, USA
Delandmeter, Mathieu ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département GxABT > Plant Sciences
Acutis, Marco; Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Production, Landscape, Agroenergy, University of Milan, 20133, Milan, Italy
Archontoulis, Sotirios; Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames, 50011, USA
Covey, Kristofer R; Environmental Studies and Sciences Program, Skidmore College, New York, 12866, USA
Doro, Luca; Blackland Research Center, Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Temple, 76502, USA
Dumont, Benjamin ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Plant Sciences
Grace, Peter R; Centre for Agriculture and the Bioeconomy, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4000, Australia
Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, 32611, USA
Jones, James W; Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, 32611, USA
Perego, Alessia; Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Production, Landscape, Agroenergy, University of Milan, 20133, Milan, Italy
Ruane, Alexander; Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, 10025, USA
Stöckle, Claudio O; Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, 99164, USA
Zhang, Yao; Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 80523, USA
Partial funding to Basso is provided by: Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program under Award Number DE-SC0018409; the National Science Foundation Long-term Ecological Research Program (DEB 2224712) at the Kellogg Biological Station, USDA NIFA, Award no. 2020-67021-32799, Michigan State University, AgBioResearch, Climate TRACE, CERCA-FFAR project, Walton Family Foundation, United Soybean Board, Morgan Stanley Sustainable Solution Collaborative, Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development. M. Delandmeter was granted a Research Fellow (number 44221) fellowship by the F.R.S.-FNRS (Belgian Fund for Scientific Research).
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