Article (Scientific journals)
Predicting the unpredictable: unveiling hidden patterns of emergency department unexpected deaths - a retrospective study.
Gontier, Raphaël; Klenkenberg, Sophie; Ambrozic, Mario et al.
2025In Acta Clinica Belgica, p. 1 - 10
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Keywords :
Unexpected deaths; adverse events; emergency department; overcrowding; quality of care
Abstract :
[en] [en] OBJECTIVES: Unexpected deaths in the emergency department (ED) are rare but may indicate missed opportunities to detect clinical deterioration. This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with unexpected deaths and to better characterize patients at risk during their ED stay. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted in the two EDs of CHU Liège between 2019 and 2023. All adult deaths (≥16 years) were extracted from the hospital's electronic health records and classified as expected or unexpected based on predefined criteria. Demographic data, triage levels, vital signs, Early Warning Scores (EWS), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), care location, and timing of death were analyzed using R software. RESULTS: Among 461,958 ED admissions, 823 adult patients died. Of these, 42 (5.1%) were classified as unexpected. These cases were more frequently transported by non-medicalized ambulance (40.5% vs. 27.5%, p = 0.006), assigned lower triage levels (p < 0.001), and less often admitted to the resuscitation room (73.8% vs. 49.8%, p = 0.002). They also presented lower EWS (0-4: 77.4% vs. 48.5%, p = 0.006) and higher initial GCS scores (p = 0.002). In multivariate analysis, a high EWS (≥7) and an altered GCS were both associated with a lower likelihood of unexpected death (OR 0.10, p = 0.03, and OR 0.32, p = 0.05, respectively), indicating that these factors were more frequent among expected deaths. CONCLUSION: Unexpected deaths represented 5.1% of ED fatalities and were often preceded by subtle signs such as behavioral changes or mildly abnormal vital signs. Many occurred after initial stabilization, particularly in short-stay areas, underscoring the need to reflect on the organization and role of these units within the hospital system.
Disciplines :
Public health, health care sciences & services
Author, co-author :
Gontier, Raphaël ;  Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Liège - CHU > > Service des urgences
Klenkenberg, Sophie  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Mathematics
Ambrozic, Mario;  Public Health Department, Faculty of Medicine, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium
Stifkens, François ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences cliniques
BASTIDE, Marine ;  Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Liège - CHU > > Service des urgences
Ghuysen, Alexandre  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences de la santé publique > Simulation médicale en situation critique
Paquay, Méryl   ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences de la santé publique > Management des organisations de santé publique - aspects généraux
 These authors have contributed equally to this work.
Language :
English
Title :
Predicting the unpredictable: unveiling hidden patterns of emergency department unexpected deaths - a retrospective study.
Publication date :
24 November 2025
Journal title :
Acta Clinica Belgica
ISSN :
1784-3286
eISSN :
2295-3337
Publisher :
Informa UK Limited, England
Pages :
1 - 10
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Available on ORBi :
since 27 December 2025

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