Household water consumption, access and conservation in the semi-arid city of Amboasary-Atsimo (southern Madagascar): an approach coupling random forests and structural equation modeling - 2025
Household water consumption, access and conservation in the semi-arid city of Amboasary-Atsimo (southern Madagascar): an approach coupling random forests and structural equation modeling
Kapiri, Moïse Musubao; Mahamba, Jonathan Ahadi; Nassirou, Yameogoet al.
2025 • In Sustainable Water Resources Management, 11 (5)
Drought; Machine learning; Madagascar; Structural equation modeling; Water access; Water conservation; Behavioral factors; Drought risks; Machine-learning; Psychological factors; Random forests; Semi arid; Structural equation models; Water consumption; Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment; Water Science and Technology
Abstract :
[en] Water supply to cities experiencing drought episodes is an important challenge for decision-makers, especially from a sustainable development perspective. The present study aims to assess factors affecting household access to, consumption of, and conservation of drinking water in the semi-arid city of Amboasary-Atsimo in southern Madagascar, which has overcome severe water scarcity. Data were collected through a field survey of 386 households and analyzed using a combination of machine learning based on a random forests (RF) algorithm and structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of this research revealed significant disparities between households in terms of access to water within the city. 330 households depend on external sources, of which 76.7% have no access to water. Random forests identified 16 factors affecting household access to water during drought (p < 0.05). This article shows the important relationship between access to water and insufficient food access. The variance explained by socio-psychological and behavioral factors on water consumption and conservation increases from 2 to 17% and from 97 to 99%, respectively, after including drought risk perception and type of water supply sources in the structural model. Households are more likely to adopt water conservation behaviors when they have positive habits and emotions, strong involvement in personal water-saving initiatives, and greater awareness of the impacts of drought on water availability. Socio-psychological and behavioral factors need to be taken into account when developing water supply policies and strategies for drought-affected cities. It is suggested that perceptions of drought risk should be considered when studying the behavior of water consumers.
Disciplines :
Environmental sciences & ecology
Author, co-author :
Kapiri, Moïse Musubao ; RiCHES Laboratory, UR Sphères, Department of Science and Environmental Management, University of Liège, Arlon, Belgium ; Laboratoire d’Ecologie, Géomorphologie et Géomatique (LEGG), Université Catholique du Graben (UCG), Butembo, Democratic Republic Congo
Mahamba, Jonathan Ahadi; RiCHES Laboratory, UR Sphères, Department of Science and Environmental Management, University of Liège, Arlon, Belgium ; Laboratoire d’Ecologie, Géomorphologie et Géomatique (LEGG), Université Catholique du Graben (UCG), Butembo, Democratic Republic Congo ; Institute of Life, Earth and Environment (ILEE) and Department of Geography, University of Namur, Namur, Belgium
Nassirou, Yameogo; RiCHES Laboratory, UR Sphères, Department of Science and Environmental Management, University of Liège, Arlon, Belgium
Baga, Amédée; RiCHES Laboratory, UR Sphères, Department of Science and Environmental Management, University of Liège, Arlon, Belgium ; General Direction of Water Resources, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Rakotomanga, Rebecca Zolalaina; RiCHES Laboratory, UR Sphères, Department of Science and Environmental Management, University of Liège, Arlon, Belgium ; Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, Antananarivo, Madagascar
Hien, Koufanou ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences et gestion de l'environnement (Arlon Campus Environnement)
De Longueville, Florence ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des sciences et gestion de l'environnement (Arlon Campus Environnement) ; Institute of Life, Earth and Environment (ILEE) and Department of Geography, University of Namur, Namur, Belgium
Ozer, Pierre ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Sphères
Language :
English
Title :
Household water consumption, access and conservation in the semi-arid city of Amboasary-Atsimo (southern Madagascar): an approach coupling random forests and structural equation modeling
Publication date :
October 2025
Journal title :
Sustainable Water Resources Management
ISSN :
2363-5037
eISSN :
2363-5045
Publisher :
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
ARES CCD - Académie de Recherche et d'Enseignement Supérieur. Coopération au Développement FRB - King Baudouin Foundation
Funding text :
We thank the Commission de la Coop\u00E9ration au D\u00E9veloppement de l\u2019Acad\u00E9mie de Recherche de d\u2019Enseignement Sup\u00E9rieur (ARES-CCD)/Belgium for funding our trip to Madagascar and the King Baudouin Foundation/Belgium through the Elisabeth and Am\u00E9lie Funds for financial support for data collection. The authors would like to thank all the heads of households for their time and trust. We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their insightful and pertinent comments. We thank Kambale Muyisa Musongora for proofreading the first English version.
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