An energy system model-based approach to investigate cost-optimal technology mixes for the Cuban power system to meet national targets

Cuba's power supply is characterized by the dependence on imported oil, outdated power plants and frequent power curtailment. Cuba's government aims at changing this situation through the National Economic and Social Development Plan, which targets a renewable share of 37 % in 2030. In the longer term, the Cuban government has already acknowledged the goal of 100 % renewable electricity supply. This work reviews the current ambitions of the Cuban government and provides a scientific approach to identifying the most cost-effective 100 % renewable energy system in 2030. First, we study whether the generation mix proposed by the Cuban government to reach 37 % renewables is the most cost-effective. Second, we run a simulation that considers fossil and renewable energy technologies purely to optimize costs. Third, we investigate the renewable future for Cuba with a simulation under the constraint of a 100 % renewable energy share. Our results suggest that energy sector plans should be reconsidered from a techno-economic point of view: With the overall cost-optimization, we find that much higher renewable energy shares of over 80 % are possible at lower overall costs. Finally, we analyze that the cost viability of a 100 % renewable electricity depends largely on the ability to use Cuba's biomass resources to balance solar generation.