Evaluating the impact of climate change on yield and water use efficiency of different dry-season rice varieties cultivated under conventional and alternate wetting and drying conditions.
Alternate wetting and drying; Climate model ensembles; Crop model; Dry season rice; Rice variety; Water use efficiency; Water; Seasons; Biomass; Environmental Monitoring/methods; Climate Change; Oryza/growth & development; Agriculture/methods; Agriculture; Environmental Monitoring; Oryza; Environmental Science (all); Pollution; Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Abstract :
[en] This study is the first attempt to assess rice cultivation under alternate wetting and drying (AWD) and continuous flooding (CF) using the latest scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), utilizing AquaCrop Model. Field experiments were conducted during the dry season 2023 to get the model calibration and validation input. We used two shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) developed within Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and projected the rice growth during 2040-2070. The simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of AquaCrop in capturing crop development across treatments and varieties. This model's accuracy in simulating canopy cover (nRMSE = 14-32.5%), time series biomass (nRMSE = 22-42.5%), grain yield (Pd = 4.36-24.38%), and total biomass (nRMSE = 0.39-18.98%) was generally acceptable. The analysis of future climate shows an increasing trend in the monthly average temperature by 0.8 °C (Tmin) and 1.3 °C (Tmax) in both scenarios. While ETo values were not anticipated, rainfall was expected to increase with average values of 5.62 mm to 11.25 mm. In addition, the study found that varieties with growing periods longer than 93 days after transplanting (DAT), such as CAR15 and Sen Kra Ob, were most impacted by heat stress conditions, leading to reduced yield, harvest index (HI), and water use efficiency (WUE). In our case, CAR15 and Sen Kra Ob grain yields were reduced by 53% and 8%, respectively. AWD maintains superior WUE compared with CF regardless of the type of varieties, suggesting this technique is a drought-adaptive strategy.
Disciplines :
Engineering, computing & technology: Multidisciplinary, general & others
Author, co-author :
Phoeurn, Chan Arun ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre ; Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Faculty of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Phnom Penh, Cambodia. chan.arun@itc.edu.kh
Degré, Aurore ; Université de Liège - ULiège > TERRA Research Centre > Echanges Eau - Sol - Plantes
Oeurng, Chantha; Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Faculty of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Ket, Pinnara; Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Faculty of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Language :
English
Title :
Evaluating the impact of climate change on yield and water use efficiency of different dry-season rice varieties cultivated under conventional and alternate wetting and drying conditions.
Publication date :
12 November 2024
Journal title :
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
ISSN :
0167-6369
eISSN :
1573-2959
Publisher :
Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Netherlands
A. Abhishek M.S. Phanikumar A. Sendrowski K.M. Andreadis M.G. Hashemi S. Jayasinghe P.V. Prasad R.J. Brent N.N. Das Dryspells and minimum air temperatures influence rice yields and their forecast uncertainties in rainfed systems Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2023 341 109683 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109683
Allen, RG., Pereira, LS., Raes, D., Smith, M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration. In Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. Irrigation and drainage (pp. 56). FAO.
AlvarBeltrán, J., Soldan, R., Ly, P., Seng, V., Srun, K., Manzanas, R., Franceschini, G., & Heureux, A. (2022). Modelling climate change impacts on wet and dry season rice in Cambodia. In Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science (Vol. 208, Issue 5, pp. 746–761). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12617
Arai, H., Hosen, Y., Chiem, N. H., & Inubushi, K. (2021). Alternate wetting and drying enhanced the yield of a triple-cropping rice paddy of the Mekong Delta. In Soil Science and Plant Nutrition (Vol. 67, Issue 4, pp. 493–506). Informa UK Limited. https://doi.org/10.1080/00380768.2021.1929463
Atwill, R. L., Spencer, G. D., Bond, J. A., Walker, T. W., Phillips, J. M., Mills, B. E., & Krutz, L. J. (2023). Establishment of thresholds for alternate wetting and drying irrigation management in rice. In Agronomy Journal (Vol. 115, Issue 4, pp. 1735–1745). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.21366
X.C. Cao L.L. Wu R.H. Lu L.F. Zhu J.H. Zhang Q.Y. Jin Irrigation and fertilization management to optimize rice yield, water productivity and nitrogen recovery efficiency Irrigation Science 2021 39 2 235 249 10.1007/s00271-020-00700-4
Carrijo, D. R., Lundy, M. E., & Linquist, B. A. (2017). Rice yields and water use under alternate wetting and drying irrigation: A meta-analysis. In Field Crops Research (Vol. 203, Issue March). Elsevier B.V. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.12.002
Daniel, H. (2023). Performance assessment of bias correction methods using observed and regional climate model data in different watersheds, Ethiopia. In Journal of Water and Climate Change (Vol. 14, Issue 6, pp. 2007–2028). IWA Publishing. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.115
de Vries, M. E., Rodenburg, J., Bado, B. V., Sow, A., Leffelaar, P. A., & Giller, K. E. (2010). Rice production with less irrigation water is possible in a Sahelian environment. In Field Crops Research (Vol. 116, Issues 1–2, pp. 154–164). Elsevier BV.
Deb, P., Tran, D. A., & Udmale, P. D. (2015). Assessment of the impacts of climate change and brackish irrigation water on rice productivity and evaluation of adaptation measures in Ca Mau province, Vietnam. In Theoretical and Applied Climatology (Vol. 125, Issues 3–4, pp. 641–656). Springer Science and Business Media LLC. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1525-8
Devkota, K. P., Manschadi, A. M., Devkota, M., Lamers, J. P. A., Ruzibaev, E., Egamberdiev, O., Amiri, E., & Vlek, P. L. G. (2013). Simulating the impact of climate change on rice phenology and grain yield in irrigated drylands of Central Asia. In Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (Vol. 52, Issue 9, pp. 2033–2050). American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-12-0182.1
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., & Taylor, K. E. (2016). Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. In Geoscientific Model Development (Vol. 9, Issue 5, pp. 1937–1958). Copernicus GmbH. 10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
Fahad, S., Hussain, S., Saud, S., Hassan, S., Ihsan, Z., Shah, A. N., Wu, C., Yousaf, M., Nasim, W., Alharby, H., Alghabari, F., & Huang, J. (2016). Exogenously applied plant growth regulators enhance the morpho-physiological growth and yield of rice under high temperature. In Frontiers in Plant Science (Vol. 7). Frontiers Media SA. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2016.01250
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2024). Country brief. Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Environment.
Geerts, S., Raes, D., Garcia, M., Miranda, R., Cusicanqui, J. A., Taboada, C., Mendoza, J., Huanca, R., Mamani, A., Condori, O., Mamani, J., Morales, B., Osco, V., & Steduto, P. (2009). Simulating yield response of Quinoa to water availability with AquaCrop. In Agronomy Journal (Vol. 101, Issue 3, pp. 499–508). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2008.0137s
Ishfaq, M., Farooq, M., Zulfiqar, U., Hussain, S., Akbar, N., Nawaz, A., & Anjum, S. A. (2020). Alternate wetting and drying: A water-saving and ecofriendly rice production system. In Agricultural Water Management (Vol. 241, p. 106363). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106363
P. Ket S. Garré C. Oeurng L. Hok A. Degré Simulation of crop growth and water-saving irrigation scenarios for lettuce: A monsoon-climate case study in Kampong Chhnang Cambodia. Water 2018 10 5 666 10.3390/w10050666
Maniruzzaman, M., Talukder, M. S. U., Khan, M. H., Biswas, J. C., & Nemes, A. (2015). Validation of the AquaCrop model for irrigated rice production under varied water regimes in Bangladesh. In Agricultural Water Management (Vol. 159, pp. 331–340). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.06.022
Maurer, E. P., & Hidalgo, H. G. (2008). Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: an intercomparison of two statistical downscaling methods. In Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Vol. 12, Issue 2, pp. 551–563). Copernicus GmbH. 10.5194/hess-12-551-2008
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., … Wang, R. H. J. (2020). The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. In Geoscientific Model Development (Vol. 13, Issue 8, pp. 3571–3605). Copernicus GmbH. 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. (2022a). Annual report 2021 and Planning 2022.
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. (2022b). National Agricultural Development Policy 2022–2030.
Mirfenderski, R., Darzi-Naftchali, A., & Karandish, F. (2021). Climate-resilient agricultural water management to alleviate negative impacts of global warming in rice production systems. In Theoretical and Applied Climatology (Vol. 147, Issues 1–2, pp. 409–422). Springer Science and Business Media LLC. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03813-8
Monaco, S., Volante, A., Orasen, G., Cochrane, N., Oliver, V., Price, A. H., Teh, Y. A., Martínez-Eixarch, M., Thomas, C., Courtois, B., & Valé, G. (2021). Effects of the application of a moderate alternate wetting and drying technique on the performance of different European varieties in Northern Italy rice system. In Field Crops Research (Vol. 270, p. 108220). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2021.108220
Na, R., Vote, C., Oeurng, C., Song, L., & Lim, V. (2017). Predicting maize yield response to climate change: Case study in Cambodia. 2nd international symposium on conservation and Management of Tropical Lakes.
O’Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., & Sanderson, B. M. (2016). The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. In Geoscientific Model Development (Vol. 9, Issue 9, pp. 3461–3482). Copernicus GmbH. 10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016
Oliver, V., Cochrane, N., Magnusson, J., Brachi, E., Monaco, S., Volante, A., Courtois, B., Vale, G., Price, A., & Teh, Y. A. (2019). Effects of water management and cultivar on carbon dynamics, plant productivity and biomass allocation in European rice systems. In Science of The Total Environment (Vol. 685, pp. 1139–1151). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.110
Van Oort, P. A. J., & Dingkuhn, M. (2021). Feet in the water and hands on the keyboard: A critical retrospective of crop modelling at AfricaRice. In Field Crops Research (Vol. 263, p. 108074). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2021.108074
R. Osman S.T. Ata-Ul-Karim M.N. Tahir W. Ishaque M. Xu Multi-model ensembles for assessing the impact of future climate change on rainfed wheat productivity under various cultivars and nitrogen levels European Journal of Agronomy 2022 139 126554 10.1016/j.eja.2022.126554
Porras-Jorge, R., Ramos-Fernández, L., Ojeda-Bustamante, W., & Ontiveros-Capurata, R. (2020). Performance assessment of the AquaCrop model to estimate rice yields under alternate wetting and drying irrigation in the coast of Peru. In Scientia agropecuaria (Vol. 11, Issue 3, pp. 309–321). Universidad Nacional de Trujillo. https://doi.org/10.17268/sci.agropecu.2020.03.03
Raes, D., Steduto, P., Hsiao, TC., and Fereres, E. (2009). Crop water productivity. Calculation Procedures and Calibration Guideline. AquaCrop version 3.0. FAO. Land and Water Development Division, Rome.
Raes, D., Steduto, P., Hsiao, T.C., & Fereres, E. (2012). Reference manual of AquaCrop model. Chapter 2, Users Guide, FAO Land and Water Division, Rome Italy. 164p
Raes, D., Steduto, P., Hsiao, T C., and Fereres, E. (2017). AquaCrop reference manual (Version 6.0). http://www.fao.org/land-water/databases-and-software/aquacrop/en/
. Improved management may alleviate some but not all of the adverse effects of climate change on crop yields in smallholder farms in West Africa. In Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (Vols. 308–309, p. 108563). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108563
R.S. Raoufi S. Soufizadeh Simulation of the impacts of climate change on phenology, growth, and yield of various rice genotypes in humid sub-tropical environments using AquaCrop-Rice International Journal of Biometeorology 2020 64 10 1657 1673 10.1007/s00484-020-01946-5
Raoufi, R. S., Soufizadeh, S., Larijani, B. A., AghaAlikhani, M., & Kambouzia, J. (2018). Simulation of growth and yield of various irrigated rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes by AquaCrop under different seedling ages. Natural Resource Modeling, 31(2). https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12162
. Methane emission reductions from the alternate wetting and drying of rice fields detected using the eddy covariance method. In Environmental Science & Technology (Vol. 53, Issue 2, pp. 671–681). American Chemical Society (ACS). https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b05535
K. Saito B. Linquist G.N. Atlin K. Phanthaboon T. Shiraiwa T. Horie Response of traditional and improved upland rice cultivars to N and P fertilizer in northern Laos Field Crops Research 2006 96 216 223 10.1016/j.fcr.2005.07.003
Sarwar, N., Atique-ur-Rehman, Ahmad, S., & Hasanuzzaman, M. (2022). Modern techniques of rice crop production. In Modern Techniques of Rice Crop Production. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-4955-4
Shi, P., Zhu, Y., Tang, L., Chen, J., Sun, T., Cao, W., & Tian, Y. (2016). Differential effects of temperature and duration of heat stress during anthesis and grain filling stages in rice. In Environmental and Experimental Botany (Vol. 132, pp. 28–41). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2016.08.006
Shrestha, S., Deb, P., & Bui, T. T. T. (2014). Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change in Central Vietnam. In Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (Vol. 21, Issue 1, pp. 15–37). Springer Science and Business Media LLC. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9567-2
Shrestha, M., Acharya, S. C., & Shrestha, P. K. (2017). Bias correction of climate models for hydrological modelling – are simple methods still useful? In Meteorological Applications (Vol. 24, Issue 3, pp. 531–539). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1655
Sokkea Hoy (2024) Grain and Feed Annual. USDA. Phnom Penh
Sriphirom, P., Chidthaisong, A., Yagi, K., Tripetchkul, S., & Towprayoon, S. (2019). Evaluation of biochar applications combined with alternate wetting and drying (AWD) water management in rice field as a methane mitigation option for farmers’ adoption. In Soil Science and Plant Nutrition (Vol. 66, Issue 1, pp. 235–246). Informa UK Limited. https://doi.org/10.1080/00380768.2019.1706431
Steduto, P., Hsiao, T, C., Fereres, E., Raes, D. (2012). Crop yield response to water. FAO IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE PAPER 66. FAO.
Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C., & Duffy, P. B. (2012). Technical note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. In Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Vol. 16, Issue 9, pp. 3309–3314). Copernicus GmbH. 10.5194/hess-16-3309-2012
Alghabari F, Huang J (2016) Exogenously applied plant growth regulators enhance the morpho-physiological growth and yield of rice under high temperature. Front Plant Sci 7: 1250
Vahdati, A., Mohebalipour, N., Amiri, E., Ebadi, A. A., & Faramarzi, A. (2020). Simulating the production of rice genotypes by flood management and end-season water stress conditions using AquaCrop model. In Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis (Vol. 51, Issue 16, pp. 2137–2146). Informa UK Limited. https://doi.org/10.1080/00103624.2020.1813750
Xu, J., Bai, W., Li, Y., Wang, H., Yang, S., & Wei, Z. (2019). Modeling rice development and field water balance using AquaCrop model under drying-wetting cycle condition in eastern China. In Agricultural Water Management (Vol. 213, pp. 289–297). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2018.10.028
Yao, F., Huang, J., Cui, K., Nie, L., Xiang, J., Liu, X., Wu, W., Chen, M., & Peng, S. (2012). Agronomic performance of high-yielding rice variety grown under alternate wetting and drying irrigation. In Field Crops Research (Vol. 126, pp. 16–22). Elsevier BV. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2011.09.018
M. Zachow D.S. Nóia R. Júnior S. Asseng Seasonal climate models for national wheat yield forecasts in Brazil Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2023 342 109753 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109753
