Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution.

[en] Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is predominantly driven by increased solid ice discharge, but its variability is governed by surface processes. Snowfall fluctuations control the surface mass balance (SMB) of the grounded AIS, while meltwater ponding can trigger ice shelf collapse potentially accelerating discharge. Surface processes are essential to quantify AIS mass change, but remain poorly represented in climate models typically running at 25-100 km resolution. Here we present SMB and surface melt products statistically downscaled to 2 km resolution for the contemporary climate (1979-2021) and low, moderate and high-end warming scenarios until 2100. We show that statistical downscaling modestly enhances contemporary SMB (3%), which is sufficient to reconcile modelled and satellite mass change. Furthermore, melt strongly increases (46%), notably near the grounding line, in better agreement with in-situ and satellite records. The melt increase persists by 2100 in all warming scenarios, revealing higher surface melt rates than previously estimated.

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Noël, Brice ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

van Wessem, J Melchior ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

Wouters, Bert ; Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands

Trusel, Luke ; Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA

Lhermitte, Stef ; Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands ; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

van den Broeke, Michiel R ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

Language :

English

Title :

Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution.

Publication date :

01 December 2023

Journal title :

Nature Communications

eISSN :

2041-1723

Publisher :

Springer Science and Business Media LLC, England

Volume :

Issue :

Pages :

7949

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Additional URL :

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43584-6.pdf

Funders :

F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique [BE]

Data Set :

Data set: "Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution"

Available on ORBi :

since 04 December 2023

Statistics

Number of views

9 (3 by ULiège)

Number of downloads

5 (3 by ULiège)

More statistics

Scopus citations^®

Scopus citations^®
without self-citations

Bibliography

Rignot, E. et al. Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979-2017. PNAS 116, 1095–1103 (2019). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1812883116
The IMBIE Team. Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017. Nature 558, 219–222 (2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0179-y
The IMBIE Team. Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets from 1992 to 2020. Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. 15, 1597–1616 (2022).
Pritchard, H. et al. Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves. Nature 484, 502–505 (2012). DOI: 10.1038/nature10968
Mottram, R. et al. What is the surface mass balance of Antarctica? An intercomparison of regional climate model estimates. Cryosphere 15, 502–505 (2020).
Velicogna, I. et al. Continuity of ice sheet mass loss in Greenland and Antarctica from the GRACE and GRACE follow-on missions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2020GL087291 (2020). DOI: 10.1029/2020GL087291
Banwell, A., MacAyeal, D. R. & Sergienko, O. V. Breakup of the Larsen B ice shelf triggered by chain reaction drainage of supraglacial lakes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 5872–5876 (2013). DOI: 10.1002/2013GL057694
Munneke, P. K., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., van den Broeke, M. R. & Vaughan, D. G. Firn air depletion as a precursor of Antarctic ice-shelf collapse. J. Glaciol. 60, 205–214 (2014). DOI: 10.3189/2014JoG13J183
Kingslake, J., Ely, J. C., Das, I. & Bell, R. E. Widespread movement of meltwater onto and across Antarctic ice shelves. Nature 544, 349–352 (2017). DOI: 10.1038/nature22049
Bell, R., Banwell, A. F., Trusel, L. D. & Kingslake, J. Antarctic surface hydrology and impacts on ice-sheet mass balance. Nature 8, 1044–1052 (2018).
Kuipers Munneke, P. et al. Intense winter surface melt on an Antarctic ice shelf. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 7615–7623 (2018). DOI: 10.1029/2018GL077899
Trusel, L., Pan, Z. & Moussavi, M. Repeated tidally induced hydrofracture of a supraglacial lake at the Amery Ice Shelf grounding zone. Geophys. Res. Lett. 49, e2021GL095661 (2022). DOI: 10.1029/2021GL095661
Rignot, E. et al. Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf. Geophys. Res. Lett. 60, L18401 (2004).
Scambos, T., Bohlander, J. A., Shuman, C. A. & Skvarca, P. Glacier acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L18402 (2004). DOI: 10.1029/2004GL020670
Trusel, L. et al. Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios. Nat. Geosci. 8, 927–932 (2015). DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2563
Gilbert, E. & Kittel, C. Surface melt and runoff on Antarctic ice shelves at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 4 °C of future warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 48, e2020GL091733 (2021). DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091733
van Wessem, J., van den Broeke, M. R., Wouters, B. & Lhermitte, S. Variable temperature thresholds of melt pond formation on Antarctic ice shelves. Nat. Clim. Change 13, 161–166 (2022).
van Wessem, J. et al. Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2—part 2: Antarctica (1979-2016). Cryosphere 12, 1479–1498 (2018). DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-1479-2018
Agosta, C. et al. Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979-2015) and identification of dominant processes. Cryosphere 13, 281–296 (2019). DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-281-2019
Kittel, C. et al. Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet. Cryosphere 15, 1215–1236 (2021). DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021
Dunmire, D., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Datta, R. T. & Gorte, T. Antarctic surface climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model version 2 during the satellite era and into the future (1979-2100). Cryosphere 16, 4163–4184 (2022). DOI: 10.5194/tc-16-4163-2022
Lenaerts, J., Medley, B., van den Broeke, M. R. & Wouters, B. Observing and modeling ice sheet surface mass balance. Rev. Geophys. 57, 376–420 (2019). DOI: 10.1029/2018RG000622
Hansen, N. et al. Brief communication: Impact of common ice mask in surface mass balance estimates over the Antarctic ice sheet. Cryosphere 16, 711–718 (2022). DOI: 10.5194/tc-16-711-2022
Jakobs, C. et al. A benchmark dataset of in situ Antarctic surface melt rates and energy balance. J. Glaciol. 66, 291–302 (2020). DOI: 10.1017/jog.2020.6
Trusel, L., Frey, K. E., Das, S. B., Munneke, P. K. & van den Broeke, M. R. Satellite-based estimates of Antarctic surface meltwater fluxes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 6148–6153 (2013). DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058138
Hersbach, H. et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 146, 1999–2049 (2020). DOI: 10.1002/qj.3803
Danabasoglu, G. et al. The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2). JAMES 12, e2019MS001916 (2020).
Howat, I., Porter, C., Smith, B. E., Noh, M.-J. & Morin, P. The reference elevation model of Antarctica. Cryosphere 13, 665–674 (2019). DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-665-2019
Noël, B. et al. A daily, 1 km resolution data set of downscaled Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (1958–2015). Cryosphere 10, 2361–2377 (2016). DOI: 10.5194/tc-10-2361-2016
Noël, B., van de Berg, W. J., Lhermitte, S. & van den Broeke, M. R. Rapid ablation zone expansion amplifies north Greenland mass loss. Sci. Adv. 5, eaaw0123 (2019). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw0123
Noël, B., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lipscomb, W. H., Thayer-Calder, K. & van den Broeke, M. R. Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios. Nat. Commun. 13, 1–10 (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34524-x
Noël, B. et al. A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps. Nat. Commun. 8, 1–8 (2017). DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14730
Noël, B. et al. Six decades of glacial mass loss in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 123, 1430–1449 (2018). DOI: 10.1029/2017JF004304
Noël, B. et al. Low elevation of Svalbard glaciers drives high mass loss variability. Nat. Commun. 11, 1–8 (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18356-1
Noël, B. et al. North Atlantic cooling is slowing down mass loss of Icelandic glaciers. Geophys. Res. Lett. 49, e2021GL095697 (2022). DOI: 10.1029/2021GL095697
Laffin, M., Zender, C. S., van Wessem, M. & Marinsek, S. The role of föhn winds in eastern Antarctic Peninsula rapid ice shelf collapse. Cryosphere 16, 1369–1381 (2022). DOI: 10.5194/tc-16-1369-2022
Wang, Y. et al. The AntSMB dataset: a comprehensive compilation of surface mass balance field observations over the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 13, 3057–3074 (2021). DOI: 10.5194/essd-13-3057-2021
Loomis, B. D., Felikson, D., Sabaka, T. J. & Medley, B. High-spatial-resolution mass rates from GRACE and GRACE-FO: global and ice sheet analyses. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 126, e2021JB023024 (2021). DOI: 10.1029/2021JB023024
Hansen, N. et al. Downscaled surface mass balance in Antarctica: impacts of subsurface processes and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Cryosphere 15, 4315–4333 (2021). DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-4315-2021
Undèn, P. HIRLAM-5: Scientific Documentation (HIRLAM-5 Project, 2002).
ECMWF. IFS Documentation CY33R1, Part IV: Physical Processes (CY33R1) (ECMWF, 2009).
Ettema, J. et al. Climate of the Greenland ice sheet using a high-resolution climate model—part 1: evaluation. Cryosphere 4, 511–527 (2010). DOI: 10.5194/tc-4-511-2010
Ligtenberg, S., Helsen, M. M. & van den Broeke, M. R. An improved semi-empirical model for the densification of Antarctic firn. Cryosphere 5, 809–819 (2011). DOI: 10.5194/tc-5-809-2011
Lenaerts, J., van den Broeke, M. R., Angelen, J. H., van Meijgaard, E. & Déry, S. J. Drifting snow climate of the Greenland ice sheet: a study with a regional climate model. Cryosphere 6, 891–899 (2012). DOI: 10.5194/tc-6-891-2012
Kuipers Munneke, P. et al. A new albedo parameterization for use in climate models over the Antarctic ice sheet. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D05114 (2011).
van de Berg, W. & Medley, B. Brief communication: Upper-air relaxation in RACMO2 significantly improves modelled interannual surface mass balance variability in Antarctica. Cryosphere 10, 459–463 (2016). DOI: 10.5194/tc-10-459-2016
Bamber, J., Gomez-Dans, J. & Griggs, J. A new 1 km digital elevation model of the Antarctic derived from combined satellite radar and laser data—part 1: data and methods. Cryosphere 3, 101–111 (2009). DOI: 10.5194/tc-3-101-2009
Gettelman, A. et al. The single column atmosphere model version 6 (SCAM6): not a scam but a tool for model evaluation and development. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 11, 1381–1401 (2019). DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001578
Smith, R The parallel ocean program (POP) reference manual ocean component of the community climate system model (CCSM) and community earth system model (CESM). Rep. LAUR-01853 141, 1–140 (2010).
Bailey, D. et al. CESM CICE5 Users Guide, Release CESM CICE5. Documentation and Software User’s Manual from Los Alamos National Laboratory 1–41. http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/cesm2/sea-ice/ (2018).
Lawrence, D. et al. The Community Land Model version 5: description of new features, benchmarking, and impact of forcing uncertainty. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 11, 4245–4287 (2019). DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001583
Lipscomb, W. et al. Description and evaluation of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) v2.1. Geosci. Model Dev. 12, 387–424 (2019). DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-387-2019
O’Neill, B. et al. The roads ahead: narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 149–180 (2015).
Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016). DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
van Kampenhout, L. et al. Present day Greenland ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in CESM2. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 125, e2019JF005318 (2020). DOI: 10.1029/2019JF005318
Jamieson, S. et al. The glacial geomorphology of the Antarctic ice sheet bed. Antarct. Sci. 26, 724–741 (2013). DOI: 10.1017/S0954102014000212
RGI Consortium. Randolph Glacier Inventory—A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines: Version 6.0: Technical Report (Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, 2017).
Huai, B., van den Broeke, M., Reijmer, C. & Noël, B. A daily, 1 km resolution Greenland rainfall climatology (1958 2020) from statistical downscaling of a regional atmospheric climate model. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 127, e2022JD036688 (2022).
Williamson, C. J. et al. Algal photophysiology drives darkening and melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet. PNAS 117, 5694–5705 (2020). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1918412117
Tedesco, M. et al. The darkening of the Greenland ice sheet: trends, drivers, and projections (1981-2100). Cryosphere 10, 477–496 (2016). DOI: 10.5194/tc-10-477-2016
Bettadpur, S. V. UTCSR Level-2 Processing Standards Document for Product Release 06, Technical Report GRACE 327-742 (Center for Space Research the University of Texas at Austin, 2018).
Yuan, D.-N. JPL Level-2 Processing Standards Document For Level-2 Product Release 06, Technical Report GRACE 327-745 (Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology, 2018).
Dahle, C. et al. GFZ Level-2 Processing Standards Document for Level-2 Product Release 06, Scientific Technical Report STR-Data 18/04 (GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 2018).
Mayer-Gürr, T. et al. ITSG-Grace2018: monthly, daily and static gravity field solutions from GRACE. GFZ Data Services (2018).
Swenson, S., Chambers, D. & Wahr, J. Estimating geocenter variations from a combination of GRACE and ocean model output. J. Geophys. Res. 113, B08410 (2008).
Wouters, B., Gardner, A. S. & Moholdt, G. Global glacier mass loss during the GRACE satellite mission (2002–2016). Front. Earth Sci. 7, 1–11 (2019). DOI: 10.3389/feart.2019.00096
Ivins, E. & James, T. Antarctic glacial isostatic adjustment: a new assessment. Antarct. Sci. 17, 541–553 (2005). DOI: 10.1017/S0954102005002968
Noël, B. et al. Data set: “Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution". Zenodo [Data set]. https://zenodo.org/records/10007855 (2023).