Spatial resolution impacts projected plant responses to climate change on topographically complex islands

Patiño, Jairo; Collart, Flavien; Vanderpoorten, Alain; Martin‐Esquivel, José Luis; Naranjo‐Cigala, Agustín; Mirolo, Sébastien; Karger, Dirk N.

doi:10.1111/ddi.13757

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Spatial resolution impacts projected plant responses to climate change on topographically complex islands

Patiño, Jairo; Collart, Flavien; Vanderpoorten, Alain et al.

2023 • In Diversity and Distributions

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https://hdl.handle.net/2268/305516

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10.1111/ddi.13757

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Keywords :

Bryophytes; Canary Islands; climate warming; microrefugia; range shift; species distribution models

Abstract :

[en] Aim Understanding how grain size affects our ability to characterize species responses to ongoing climate change is of crucial importance in the context of an increasing awareness for the substantial difference that exists between coarse spatial resolution macroclimatic data sets and the microclimate actually experienced by organisms. Climate change impacts on biodiversity are expected to peak in mountain areas, wherein the differences between macro and microclimates are precisely the largest. Based on a newly generated fine-scale environmental data for the Canary Islands, we assessed whether data at 100 m resolution is able to provide more accurate predictions than available data at 1 km resolution. We also analysed how future climate suitability predictions of island endemic bryophytes differ depending on the grain size of grids. Location Canary Islands. Time period Present (1979–2013) and late-century (2071–2100). Taxa Bryophytes. Methods We compared the accuracy and spatial predictions using ensemble of small models for 14 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species. We used two climate data sets: CHELSA v1.2 (~1 km) and CanaryClim v1.0 (100 m), a downscaled version of the latter utilizing data from local weather stations. CanaryClim also encompasses future climate data from five individual model intercomparison projects for three warming shared socio-economic pathways. Results Species distribution models generated from CHELSA and CanaryClim exhibited a similar accuracy, but CanaryClim predicted buffered warming trends in mid-elevation ridges. CanaryClim consistently returned higher proportions of newly suitable pixels (8%–28%) than CHELSA models (0%–3%). Consequently, the proportion of species predicted to occupy pixels of uncertain suitability was higher with CHELSA (3–8 species) than with CanaryClim (0–2 species). Main conclusions The resolution of climate data impacted the predictions rather than the performance of species distribution models. Our results highlight the crucial role that fine-resolution climate data sets can play in predicting the potential distribution of both microrefugia and new suitable range under warming climate.

Disciplines :

Environmental sciences & ecology
Phytobiology (plant sciences, forestry, mycology...)

Author, co-author :

Patiño, Jairo ^✱; Island Ecology and Evolution Research Group Instituto de Productos Naturales y Agrobiología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPNA‐CSIC) Tenerife Spain ; Department of Botany, Ecology and Plant Physiology University of La Laguna Tenerife Spain

Collart, Flavien ^✱; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie de l'évolution et de la conservation - Unité aCREA-Ulg (Conseils et Recherches en Ecologie Appliquée) ; Department of Ecology and Evolution (DEE) University of Lausanne Lausanne Switzerland

Vanderpoorten, Alain ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie de l'évolution et de la conservation - Unité aCREA-Ulg (Conseils et Recherches en Ecologie Appliquée)

Martin‐Esquivel, José Luis ; Teide National Park Tenerife Spain

Naranjo‐Cigala, Agustín ; Departamento de Geografía Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria Las Palmas de Gran Canaria Spain

Mirolo, Sébastien ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Integrative Biological Sciences (InBioS) ; Department of Botany, Ecology and Plant Physiology University of La Laguna Tenerife Spain

Karger, Dirk N. ; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland

^✱ These authors have contributed equally to this work.

Language :

English

Title :

Spatial resolution impacts projected plant responses to climate change on topographically complex islands

Publication date :

27 July 2023

Journal title :

Diversity and Distributions

ISSN :

1366-9516

eISSN :

1472-4642

Publisher :

Wiley

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Additional URL :

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ddi.13757

Funders :

FBBVA - Fundación BBVA
MICINN - Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion
SNF - Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung

Data Set :

CanaryClim v1.0: high-resolution climate data set
Topography datasets for Canary Islands
Habitat suitability maps of endemic bryophyte species

Available on ORBi :

since 30 July 2023

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