Chemistry (all); Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (all); Multidisciplinary; Physics and Astronomy (all); General Physics and Astronomy; General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology; General Chemistry
Abstract :
[en] Firn (compressed snow) covers approximately 90% of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and currently retains about half of rain and meltwater through refreezing, reducing runoff and subsequent mass loss. The loss of firn could mark a tipping point for sustained GrIS mass loss, since decades to centuries of cold summers would be required to rebuild the firn buffer. Here we estimate the warming required for GrIS firn to reach peak refreezing, using 51 climate simulations statistically downscaled to 1 km resolution, that project the long-term firn layer evolution under multiple emission scenarios (1850-2300). We predict that refreezing stabilises under low warming scenarios, whereas under extreme warming, refreezing could peak and permanently decline starting in southwest Greenland by 2100, and further expanding GrIS-wide in the early 22nd century. After passing this peak, the GrIS contribution to global sea level rise would increase over twenty-fold compared to the last three decades.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Noël, Brice ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands. b.p.y.noel@uu.nl
Lenaerts, Jan T M ; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Lipscomb, William H; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Thayer-Calder, Katherine; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
van den Broeke, Michiel R ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
Language :
English
Title :
Peak refreezing in the Greenland firn layer under future warming scenarios.
NWO - Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek [NL]
Funding text :
B.N. was funded by the NWO VENI grant VI.Veni.192.019. M.R.v.d.B. acknowledges support from NWO/ALW, NESSC and PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 45. The CESM project is supported primarily by the National Science Foundation (NSF). This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Computing and data storage resources, including the Cheyenne supercomputer (https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NCAR.B.N. was funded by the NWO VENI grant VI.Veni.192.019. M.R.v.d.B. acknowledges support from NWO/ALW, NESSC and PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 45. The CESM project is supported primarily by the National Science Foundation (NSF). This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. Computing and data storage resources, including the Cheyenne supercomputer ( https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX ), were provided by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NCAR.
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