Blue Blob; climate projection; glaciers; Iceland; RACMO; surface mass balance; Blue blob; Climate projection; Icelandic glaciers; Icelands; Mass loss; Mass loss rate; North Atlantic; Regional cooling; Surface mass balance; Geophysics; Earth and Planetary Sciences (all); General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Abstract :
[en] Icelandic glaciers have been losing mass since the Little Ice Age in the mid-to-late 1800s, with higher mass loss rates in the early 21st century, followed by a slowdown since 2011. As of yet, it remains unclear whether this mass loss slowdown will persist in the future. By reconstructing the contemporary (1958–2019) surface mass balance of Icelandic glaciers, we show that the post-2011 mass loss slowdown coincides with the development of the Blue Blob, an area of regional cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean to the south of Greenland. This regional cooling signal mitigates atmospheric warming in Iceland since 2011, in turn decreasing glacier mass loss through reduced meltwater runoff. In a future high-end warming scenario, North Atlantic cooling is projected to mitigate mass loss of Icelandic glaciers until the mid-2050s. High mass loss rates resume thereafter as the regional cooling signal weakens.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Noël, Brice ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna ; Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavìk, Iceland
Pálsson, Finnur ; Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavìk, Iceland
Wouters, Bert ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands ; Department of Geoscience & Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
Lhermitte, Stef ; Department of Geoscience & Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
Haacker, Jan M.; Department of Geoscience & Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
van den Broeke, Michiel R. ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
Language :
English
Title :
North Atlantic Cooling is Slowing Down Mass Loss of Icelandic Glaciers
NWO - Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek NESSC - Netherlands Earth System Science Centre
Funding text :
B. Noël was funded by the NWO VENI grant VI.Veni.192.019. B. Wouters and J. M. Haacker were funded by NWO VIDI Grant 016.Vidi.171.063. This publication was also supported by the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC) and PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 869 304, PROTECT contribution number 28.
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