Confronting Nationally Determined Contributions to IPPC’s +2°C Carbon Budgets through the Analyses of France and Wallonia Climate Policies

A method to objectively compare and link climate policies, expressed in CO2eq, to IPCC’s carbon budgets, expressed in CO2-only, is exhibited, as countries often omit to so in their Nationally Determined Contributions. Furthermore, they are usually pledging only towards territorial targets despite the fact that imported emissions are now greater in occidental countries, thus relying on the countries they are importing from to achieve their own territorial emissions reductions. This paper demonstrates that the +1.5°C carbon budgets of France and Wallonia will be exceeded even with territorial emissions only. For the +2°C carbon budget to be secured, France should reduce its imported emissions at least to the same extent as their projected territorial emissions. For Wallonia, this is even emphasized since it has no margin in the +2°C carbon budget with only the territorial emissions. It should therefore legally adopt more ambitious territorial and imported emissions reduction pathways with short-term commitments.