A 21st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss

CESM2; future; Greenland; regional climate model; surface mass balance; Atmospheric warming; Earth system model; Emissions scenarios; Greenland Ice Sheet; Pre-industrial; Sea level rise; Surface mass balance; Temperature changes; Geophysics; Earth and Planetary Sciences (all); General Earth and Planetary Sciences

Abstract :

[en] Under anticipated future warming, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) will pass a threshold when meltwater runoff exceeds the accumulation of snow, resulting in a negative surface mass balance (SMB < 0) and sustained mass loss. Here, we dynamically and statistically downscale the outputs of an Earth system model to 1 km resolution to infer that a Greenland near-surface atmospheric warming of 4.5 ± 0.3°C—relative to preindustrial—is required for GrIS SMB to become persistently negative. Climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 translate this regional temperature change to a global warming threshold of 2.7 ± 0.2°C. Under a high-end warming scenario, this threshold may be reached around 2055, while for a strong mitigation scenario it will likely not be passed. Depending on the emissions scenario taken, our method estimates 6–13 cm sea level rise from GrIS SMB by the year 2100.

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Noël, Brice ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

van Kampenhout, L. ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

Lenaerts, J.T.M. ; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States

van de Berg, W.J. ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

van den Broeke, M.R. ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

Language :

English

Title :

A 21st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss

Publication date :

16 March 2021

Journal title :

Geophysical Research Letters

ISSN :

0094-8276

eISSN :

1944-8007

Publisher :

Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Volume :

Issue :

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Additional URL :

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2020GL090471

Funders :

NWO - Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek [NL]
NESSC - Netherlands Earth System Science Centre [NL]
NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration [US-DC] [US-DC]

Funding text :

B. Noël was funded by the NWO VENI grant VI.Veni.192.019. L. van Kampenhout, W. J. van de Berg, and M. R. van den Broeke acknowledge funding from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). This publication was supported by PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 11. J. T. M. Lenaerts acknowledges funding from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Grant 80NSSC17K0565 (NASA Sea Level Team 2017–2020).

Available on ORBi :

since 21 April 2023

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