Water Science and Technology; Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract :
[en] Firn densification modelling is key to understanding ice sheet mass balance, ice sheet surface elevation change, and the age difference between ice and the air in enclosed air bubbles. This has resulted in the development of many firn models, all relying to a certain degree on parameter calibration against observed data. We present a novel Bayesian calibration method for these parameters and apply it to three existing firn models. Using an extensive dataset of firn cores from Greenland and Antarctica, we reach optimal parameter estimates applicable to both ice sheets. We then use these to simulate firn density and evaluate against independent observations. Our simulations show a significant decrease (24% and 56%) in observation-model discrepancy for two models and a smaller increase (15%) for the third. As opposed to current methods, the Bayesian framework allows for robust uncertainty analysis related to parameter values. Based on our results, we review some inherent model assumptions and demonstrate how firn model choice and uncertainties in parameter values cause spread in key model outputs.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Verjans, Vincent; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
Leeson, Amber A. ; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
Nemeth, Christopher; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
Max Stevens, C.; Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
Kuipers Munneke, Peter ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
Noël, Brice ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
Van Wessem, Jan Melchior ; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
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