Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Box, Jason E.; Hubbard, Alun; Bahr, David B.; Colgan, William T.; Fettweis, Xavier; Mankoff, Kenneth D.; Wehrlé, Adrien; Noël, Brice; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Wouters, Bert; Bjørk, Anders A.; Fausto, Robert S.

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2

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Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Box, Jason E.; Hubbard, Alun; Bahr, David B. et al.

2022 • In Nature Climate Change

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https://hdl.handle.net/2268/294174

DOI
10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2

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Social Sciences (miscellaneous); Environmental Science (miscellaneous)

Abstract :

[en] AbstractIce loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 103 km2 ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.

Research center :

SPHERES - ULiège

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Box, Jason E.

Hubbard, Alun

Bahr, David B.

Colgan, William T.

Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Sphères

Mankoff, Kenneth D.

Wehrlé, Adrien

Noël, Brice ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

van den Broeke, Michiel R.

Wouters, Bert

Bjørk, Anders A.

Fausto, Robert S.

Language :

English

Title :

Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Publication date :

29 August 2022

Journal title :

Nature Climate Change

ISSN :

1758-678X

eISSN :

1758-6798

Publisher :

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Tags :

CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif
Tier-1 supercomputer

Additional URL :

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2.pdf

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since 30 August 2022

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