Outcomes and predictors of mortality in a Belgian population of patients admitted with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm and treated by open repair in the contemporary era.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a serious condition that results in extremely high mortality rates. Some improvements in outcome have been reported during the last two decades. The objective of the present study was to determine the overall and operative (by open repair) mortality related to ruptured AAA in the contemporary era and to identify preoperative, intraoperative and early postoperative parameters associated with poor outcomes. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of all consecutive patients admitted to our single institution with a diagnosis of ruptured AAA between 2004 and 2013. A total of 103 parameters, including demographic characteristics, medical history, clinical and biological parameters, cardiovascular risk factors, emergency level, diagnostic modalities, time from symptoms to diagnosis and treatment, type of operative procedure and postoperative complications, were analyzed. The primary endpoint considered in this study was the cumulative incidence rate of mortality. The secondary endpoint was the identification, by logistic regression methods, of risk factors for overall mortality as well as for operative and postoperative mortality. RESULTS: Within our study period, 104 patients were admitted for a ruptured AAA. The majority of patients (84.6%) were male, and the AAA was known in 34.6% of the patients. Rupture occurred for a maximal diameter lower than 55 mm in 25% of the female population, compared to 5.7% of the male population (p = 0.030). The proportions of admitted patients who died before (preoperative mortality), during (intraoperative mortality) or after (postoperative hospital mortality) surgery were 17.3%, 16.3% and 18.3%, respectively, yielding a cumulative in-hospital mortality of 51.9%. In the multivariate analysis, age ≥ 80 (p = 0.001), myocardial ischemia on the admission ECG (p = 0.046) and management by the physician response unit (p = 0.002) were the only preoperative parameters associated with a higher risk of hospital mortality. Four risk factors were found to be associated with a higher risk of postoperative mortality in the multivariate analysis, and all patients presenting with three or more of these risk factors (n=5) died. CONCLUSIONS: The overall mortality of ruptured AAA in a contemporary cohort of patients who underwent open repair remains high and does not seem to have decreased during recent decades. Ruptures occur at smaller diameters in women than in men, supporting a lower threshold for intervention in women with known AAA. We developed risk scores to predict the mortality of patients with rAAA at different times of their hospital course. The validity of these scores should be assessed in prospective clinical studies.