Article (Scientific journals)
Quantitative decision making in animal health surveillance: Bovine Tuberculosis Surveillance in Belgium as case study.
Welby, Sarah; Cargnel, Mickaël; Saegerman, Claude
2021In Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
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Keywords :
Bovine Tuberculosis; Cost-effectiveness; Modelling; Surveillance
Abstract :
[en] Despite eradication and control measures applied across Europe, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains a constant threat. In Belgium, after several years of official bTB-free status, routine movement testing, as currently practiced, revealed itself inadequate to detect some herds affected by sporadic breakdowns. The aim of this study was to assess different surveillance system components that strike a balance between cost and effectiveness and to identify sustainable alternatives, which substantiate a bTB-free claim while ensuring early detection and acceptance by various animal health stakeholders. For this pupose, a stochastic iteration model was used to simulate the current surveillance system's expected performance in terms of detection sensitivity and specificity. These results were then descriptively compared with observed field results. Second, the cost and effectiveness of simulated alternative surveillance components were quantified. Sensitivity analyses were performed to measure key assumptions' impacts (i.e. regarding diagnostic tests and true prevalence). The results confirmed discrepancies between the observed and simulated expected performance of bTB surveillance in Belgium. Second, simulated alternatives showed that interferon gamma (IFN-γ) and serological testing with antibody-enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (Ab-ELISA) targeting at-risk herds would enable an increase in the overall cost effectiveness (sensitivity and specificity) of the Belgian bTB surveillance system. Sensitivity analyses showed that results remained constant despite the modification of some key assumptions. While the performance of the ongoing bTB surveillance system in Belgium was questionable at the time of the study, this exercise highlighted that not only sensitivity but specificity also are key drivers of surveillance performance. The quantitative approach, taking into consideration various stakeholders' needs and priorities, revealed itself to be a useful tool in allowing evidence-based decision making for future tuberculosis surveillance in Belgium, in line with the international standards.
Disciplines :
Veterinary medicine & animal health
Author, co-author :
Welby, Sarah
Cargnel, Mickaël
Saegerman, Claude  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département des maladies infectieuses et parasitaires (DMI) > Epidémiologie et analyse des risques appl. aux sc. vétér.
Language :
English
Title :
Quantitative decision making in animal health surveillance: Bovine Tuberculosis Surveillance in Belgium as case study.
Publication date :
2021
Journal title :
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
ISSN :
1865-1674
eISSN :
1865-1682
Publisher :
Wiley, Berlin, Germany
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Commentary :
© 2021 Wiley-VCH GmbH.
Available on ORBi :
since 23 September 2021

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