Doctoral thesis (Dissertations and theses)
Forecast verification of a 3D model of the Mediterranean Sea. Analysis of model results and observations using wavelets and Empirical Orthogonal Functions.
Alvera Azcarate, Aïda
2004
 

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Keywords :
Forecast verification; Empirical Orthogonal Functions; Wavelets; DINEOF; Hydrodynamic Model; Mediterranean Sea
Abstract :
[en] The quality assessment of the three-dimensional GHER (GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Research) model of the Mediterranean Sea is presented in this work. The verification of the model results is done in a spatio-temporal approach. Traditional error measures (i.e. correlation, mean error, etc) are very useful to assess the quality of a model, but they do not take into account the high complexity of three-dimensional models. The verification process is thus done in three main parts: first, the model is compared to observations and climatology in a qualitative approach, in order to make a preliminar study about the model behaviour. Then, the error assessment is done, using traditional statistic measures. In order to take into account the complexity of the model and observations, the last step in the verification process consists in a spatio-temporal analysis using wavelets and empirical orthogonal functions. This last analysis will allow us to have an insight about the model quality in a more detailed way. This verification process has been applied to the GHER model. This model is implemented in a two-way nesting approach in the Mediterranean Sea, Liguro-Provençal basin and Ligurian Sea, where the highest resolution is reached. Assimilation of sea surface temperature and sea level anomaly is made during a nine-week experiment. Another test is carried out, to assess the quality of sea surface temperature from the SOFT predictor of the Ligurian Sea. The predicted sea surface temperature is assimilated in the model and the quality of the forecast is compared to the first assimilation experiment. The assimilation of the SOFT statistical predictors can be very useful to force models in a real forecast experiment, where no observations are available.
Research center :
MARE - Centre Interfacultaire de Recherches en Océanologie - ULiège
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Alvera Azcarate, Aïda  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > GeoHydrodynamics and Environment Research (GHER)
Language :
English
Title :
Forecast verification of a 3D model of the Mediterranean Sea. Analysis of model results and observations using wavelets and Empirical Orthogonal Functions.
Defense date :
13 October 2004
Number of pages :
263
Institution :
ULiège - Université de Liège
Degree :
Docteur en Sciences
Promotor :
Beckers, Jean-Marie  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Freshwater and OCeanic science Unit of reSearch (FOCUS)
President :
Donnay, Jean-Paul ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie
Jury member :
Weisberg, R. H.
Grégoire, Marilaure  ;  Université de Liège - ULiège > Freshwater and OCeanic science Unit of reSearch (FOCUS)
Rixen, Michel
Le Traon, Pierre-Yves
Gomis, Damià
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since 23 October 2009

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