Article (Scientific journals)
Climate change would lead to a sharp acceleration of Central African forests dynamics by the end of the century
Claeys, F.; Gourlet-Fleury, S.; Picard, N. et al.
2019In Environmental Research Letters, 14 (4), p. 044002
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
 

Files


Full Text
Claeys_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._14_044002.pdf
Publisher postprint (1.63 MB)
Download

All documents in ORBi are protected by a user license.

Send to



Details



Keywords :
CORDEX-Africa; M'Baïki experimental site; Climate models; Dynamics; Ecology; Forestry; Mixtures; Site selection; Ecological guild; Matrix model; Tropical rain forest; Variable selection; Climate change; Central African Republic
Abstract :
[en] Impacts of climate change on the future dynamics of Central African forests are still largely unknown, despite the acuteness of the expected climate changes and the extent of these forests. The high diversity of species and the potentially equivalent diversity of responses to climate modifications are major difficulties encountered when using predictive models to evaluate these impacts. In this study, we applied a mixture of inhomogeneous matrix models to a long-term experimental site located in M'Baïki forests, in the Central African Republic. This model allows the clustering of tree species into processes-based groups while simultaneously selecting explanatory climate and stand variables at the group-level. Using downscaled outputs of 10 general circulation models (Gcm), we projected the future forest dynamics up to the end of the century, under constant climate and Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Through comparative analyses across Gcm versions, we identified tree species meta-groups, which are more adapted than ecological guilds to describe the diversity of tree species dynamics and their responses to climate change. Projections under constant climate were consistent with a forest ageing phenomenon, with a slowdown in tree growth and a reduction of the relative abundance of short-lived pioneers. Projections under climate change showed a general increase in growth, mortality and recruitment. This acceleration in forest dynamics led to a strong natural thinning effect, with different magnitudes across species. These differences caused a compositional shift in favour of long-lived pioneers, at the detriment of shade-bearers. Consistent with other field studies and projections, our results show the importance of elucidating the diversity of tree species responses when considering the general sensitivity of Central African forests dynamics to climate change. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
Disciplines :
Phytobiology (plant sciences, forestry, mycology...)
Agriculture & agronomy
Author, co-author :
Claeys, F.;  AgroParisTech, 19 avenue du Maine, Paris, F-75732, France, Forêts et Sociétés, Cirad, F-34398 Montpellier, France, Forêts et Sociétés, Univ Montpellier, Cirad, Montpellier, France, Bureau for Economic Theory and Applications (Beta), AgroParisTech-Inra, 14 rue Girardet, Nancy, F-54000, France
Gourlet-Fleury, S.;  Forêts et Sociétés, Cirad, F-34398 Montpellier, France, Forêts et Sociétés, Univ Montpellier, Cirad, Montpellier, France
Picard, N.;  Forêts et Sociétés, Cirad, F-34398 Montpellier, France, Forêts et Sociétés, Univ Montpellier, Cirad, Montpellier, France
Ouedraogo, Dakis-Yaoba ;  Université de Liège - ULg
Tadesse, M. G.;  Georgetown University, 3700 O Street NW, Washington, DC 20057, United States
Hérault, B.;  Forêts et Sociétés, Cirad, F-34398 Montpellier, France, Forêts et Sociétés, Univ Montpellier, Cirad, Montpellier, France, Institut National Polytechnique Félix Houphouët-Boigny (Inphb), Yamoussoukro, Cote d'Ivoire
Baya, F.;  Ministry of Environment, Sustainable Devlopment, Waters, Forestry, Hunting and Fishery (Meddefcp), Rue Ambassadeur R. Guérillot, BP 830, Bangui, Central African Republic
Bénédet, F.;  Forêts et Sociétés, Cirad, F-34398 Montpellier, France, Forêts et Sociétés, Univ Montpellier, Cirad, Montpellier, France
Cornu, G.;  Forêts et Sociétés, Cirad, F-34398 Montpellier, France, Forêts et Sociétés, Univ Montpellier, Cirad, Montpellier, France
Mortier, F.;  Forêts et Sociétés, Cirad, F-34398 Montpellier, France, Forêts et Sociétés, Univ Montpellier, Cirad, Montpellier, France
Language :
English
Title :
Climate change would lead to a sharp acceleration of Central African forests dynamics by the end of the century
Publication date :
2019
Journal title :
Environmental Research Letters
eISSN :
1748-9326
Publisher :
Institute of Physics Publishing, United Kingdom
Volume :
14
Issue :
4
Pages :
044002
Peer reviewed :
Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi
Available on ORBi :
since 12 July 2021

Statistics


Number of views
49 (5 by ULiège)
Number of downloads
26 (4 by ULiège)

Scopus citations®
 
11
Scopus citations®
without self-citations
5
OpenCitations
 
10

Bibliography


Similar publications



Contact ORBi