Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

[en] Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Research Center/Unit :

Sphères - SPHERES

Disciplines :

Earth sciences & physical geography

Author, co-author :

Payne, A.

Nowicki, S.

ISMIP6 team

Fettweis, Xavier ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Climatologie et Topoclimatologie

ISMIP6 team

Language :

English

Title :

Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Publication date :

04 May 2021

Journal title :

Geophysical Research Letters

ISSN :

0094-8276

eISSN :

1944-8007

Publisher :

Wiley, Washington, United States - District of Columbia

Volume :

Pages :

e2020GL091741

Peer reviewed :

Peer Reviewed verified by ORBi

Tags :

CÉCI : Consortium des Équipements de Calcul Intensif

Additional URL :

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL091741

Funders :

F.R.S.-FNRS - Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique

Commentary :

ISMIP6 team: Antony J. Payne Sophie Nowicki Ayako Abe‐Ouchi Cécile Agosta Patrick Alexander Torsten Albrecht Xylar Asay‐Davis Andy Aschwanden Alice Barthel Thomas J. Bracegirdle Reinhard Calov Christopher Chambers Youngmin Choi Richard Cullather Joshua Cuzzone Christophe Dumas Tamsin L. Edwards Denis Felikson Xavier Fettweis Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi Heiko Goelzer Rupert Gladstone Nicholas R. Golledge Jonathan M. Gregory Ralf Greve Tore Hattermann Matthew J. Hoffman Angelika Humbert Philippe Huybrechts Nicolas C. Jourdain Thomas Kleiner Peter Kuipers Munneke Eric Larour Sebastien Le clec'h Victoria Lee Gunter Leguy William H. Lipscomb Christopher M. Little Daniel P. Lowry Mathieu Morlighem Isabel Nias Frank Pattyn Tyler Pelle Stephen F. Price Aurélien Quiquet Ronja Reese Martin Rückamp Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel Hélène Seroussi Andrew Shepherd Erika Simon Donald Slater Robin S. Smith Fiammetta Straneo Sainan Sun Lev Tarasov Luke D. Trusel Jonas Van Breedam Roderik van de Wal Michiel van den Broeke Ricarda Winkelmann Chen Zhao Tong Zhang Thomas Zwinger

Available on ORBi :

since 06 May 2021

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