[en] Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used with climate only to predict animal distribution changes. This approach however neglects the evolution of other components of the niche, like food resource availability. SDMs are also commonly used with plants. This also suffers limitations, notably an inability to capture the fertilizing effect of the rising CO2 concentration strengthening resilience to water stress. Alternatively, process-based dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) respond to CO2 concentration. To test the impact of the plant modelling method to model plant resources of animals, we studied the distribution of a Bolivian macaw, assuming that, under future climate, DVMs produce more conservative results than SDMs. We modelled the bird with an SDM driven by climate. For the plant, we used SDMs or a DVM. Under future climates, the macaw SDM showed increased probabilities of presence over the area of distribution and connected range extensions. For plants, SDMs did not forecast overall response. By contrast, the DVM produced increases of productivity, occupancy and diversity, also towards higher altitudes. The results offered positive perspectives for the macaw, more optimistic with the DVM than with the SDMs, than initially assumed. Nevertheless, major common threats remain, challenging the short-term survival of the macaw.
Disciplines :
Environmental sciences & ecology
Author, co-author :
Hambuckers, Alain ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de Biologie, Ecologie et Evolution > Biologie du comportement - Ethologie et psychologie animale
de Harenne, Simon ; Université de Liège > Biologie du comportement - Ethologie et psychologie animale
Rocha Ledezma, Eberth
Zuniga Zeballos, Lilian ; Université de Liège > Biologie du comportement - Ethologie et Psychologie animale
François, Louis ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Modélisation du climat et des cycles biogéochimiques
Language :
English
Title :
Predicting the Future Distribution of Ara rubrogenys, an Endemic Endangered Bird Species of the Andes, Taking Into Account Trophic Interactions
Publication date :
2021
Journal title :
Diversity
Publisher :
MDPI, Basel, Switzerland
Special issue title :
Ecology and Conservation of Parrots in Their Native and Non-Native Ranges
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