[en] This paper describes the statistical analysis of annual trends in long term datasets of greenhouse gas measurements taken over ten or more years. The analysis technique employs a bootstrap resampling method to determine both the long-term and intra-annual variability of the datasets, together with the uncertainties on the trend values. The method has been applied to data from a European network of ground-based solar FTIR instruments to determine the trends in the tropospheric, stratospheric and total columns of ozone, nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide, methane, ethane and HCFC-22. The suitability of the method has been demonstrated through statistical validation of the technique, and comparison with ground-based in-situ measurements and 3-D atmospheric models.
Disciplines :
Earth sciences & physical geography
Author, co-author :
Gardiner, Tom
Forbes, A.; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Groupe infra-rouge de phys. atmosph. et solaire (GIRPAS)
De Mazière, Martine
Vigouroux, Corinne
Mahieu, Emmanuel ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Groupe infra-rouge de phys. atmosph. et solaire (GIRPAS)
Demoulin, Philippe ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département d'astrophys., géophysique et océanographie (AGO) > Groupe infra-rouge de phys. atmosph. et solaire (GIRPAS)
Berthouex, P. M. and Brown, L. C.: Statistics for Environmental Engineers, CRC Press, Inc., US, 1994.
Cox, M. G., Harris, P. M., Milton, M. J. T., and Woods, P. T.; Method for Evaluating Trends in Ozone Concentration Data and its Application to Data from the UK Ruural Ozone Monitoring Network, NPL Report CMSC 15/02, November, 2002.
De Mazière, M., Vigouroux, C., Gardiner, T., Coleman, M., Woods, P., Ellingsen, K., Gauss, M., Isaken, I., Blumenstock, T., Hase, F., Kramer, I., Camy-Peyret, C., Chelin, P., Mahieu, E., Demoulin, P., Duchatelet, P., Mellqvist, J., Strandberg, A., Velazco, V., Notholt, J., Sussmann, R., Stremme, W., and Rockmann A.: The exploitation of ground-based Fourier transform infrared observations for the evaluation of tropospheric trends of greenhouse gases over Europe, Environ. Sci., 2, 283-293, 2005.
Efron, B.: The Jackknife, the Bootstrap, and Other Resampling Plans. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, 1982.
Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R.: An Introduction to the Bootstrap, Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability 57, Chapman and Hall, 1993.
Gatz, D. F. and Smith, L.: The standard error of a weighted mean concentration - II. Estimating confidence intervals, Atmos. Environ., 29, 1195-1200, 1995.
Gauss, M., Isaksen, I. S. A., Lee, D. S., and Søvde, O. A.: Impact of aircraft NOx emissions on the atmosphere - tradeoffs to reduce the impact, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 1529-1548, 2006, http://www.atmos-chem-phys. net/6/1529/2006/.
Isaksen, I. S. A., Zerefos, C. S., Kourtidis, K., Meleti, C., Dalsoren, B. B., Sundet, J. K., Grini, A., Zanis, P., and Balis, D.: Tropospheric ozone changes at unpolluted and semipolluted regions induced by stratospheric ozone changes, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D02302, doi:10.1029/2004JD004618, 2005.
Lawson, C. L. and Hanson, R. J.: Solving Least Squares Problems, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1974.
Olivier, J., Bouwman, A., Berdowski, J., Bloos, J., Visschedijk, A., van der Mass, C., and Zandveld, P.: Sectoral emission inventories of greenhouse gases for 1990 on a per country basis as well as on 1×1 degrees, Environ. Sci. Policy, 2, 241-263, 1999.
Oltmans, S. J., Lefohn, A. S., Scheel, H. E., Harris, J. M., et al.: Trends in ozone in the troposphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 139-142, 1998.
WMO: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project-Report No. 47, 498 pp., Geneva, 2003.