Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather

This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for assessing power system resilience,motivated by the extreme weather storm experienced in Iceland in December 2019. The methodologyis built on the basis of models and data available to the Icelandic transmission system operatorin anticipation of the said storm. We study resilience in terms of the ability of the system tocontain further service disruption, while potentially operating with reduced component availabilitydue to the storm impact. To do so, we develop a Monte Carlo assessment framework combiningweather-dependent component failure probabilities, enumerated through historical failure ratedata and forecasted wind-speed data, with a bi-level attacker-defender optimization model forvulnerability identification. Our findings suggest that the ability of the Icelandic power system tocontain service disruption moderately reduces with the storm-induced potential reduction of itsavailable components. In other words, and as also validated in practice, the system is indeed resilient.