[en] Despite the important role transmission line outages play in power system reliability analysis, it remains a challenge to estimate individual line outage rates accurately enough from limited data. Recent work using a Bayesian hierarchical model shows how to combine together line outage data by exploiting how the lines partially share some common features in order to obtain more accurate estimates of line outage rates. Lower variance estimates from fewer years of data can be obtained. In this paper, we explore what can be achieved with this new Bayesian hierarchical approach using real utility data. In particular, we assess the capability to detect increases in line outage rates over time, quantify the influence of bad weather on outage rates, and discuss the effect of outage rate uncertainty on a simple availability calculation.
Disciplines :
Electrical & electronics engineering
Author, co-author :
Zhou, Kai
Cruise, James
Dent, Chris
Dobson, Ian
Wehenkel, Louis ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Dép. d'électric., électron. et informat. (Inst.Montefiore) > Méthodes stochastiques
Wang, Zhaoyu
Wilson, Amy
Language :
English
Title :
Applying Bayesian estimates of individual transmission line outage rates
Publication date :
August 2020
Event name :
2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
Event organizer :
IEEE PES
Event place :
Liège, Belgium
Event date :
18-08-2020 to 21-08-2020
Audience :
International
Main work title :
Proc of the 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
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