[en] Largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the West African populations could be severely impacted by climate change and variability. In this paper, we performed a literature review relating to perceptions of climate change and variability in West Africa, followed by an in-depth comparison between perceptions by rural dwellers of Burkina Faso and trends in meteorological data to discuss the importance of perceptions vis-à-vis climate trends in migration decision. Results showed that respondents perceived increasing temperature and worsening rainfall conditions over 1988–2007 matching with findings of previous studies but inconsistent with the trends observed in rainfall data. Given that climate change is recognized as a key driver of mobility on the one hand and the fact that climate change perceptions influence decision to migrate on the otheAdaptation . Burkina Faso . r hand, our results suggest to jointly include perceptions and climate data in future research on environmental migration in order to improve the understanding of household’s decision in response to climate change.
Ozer, Pierre ; Université de Liège - ULiège > DER Sc. et gest. de l'environnement (Arlon Campus Environ.) > DER Sc. et gest. de l'environnement (Arlon Campus Environ.)
Gemenne, François ; Université de Liège - ULiège > Département de géographie > Service de géographie rurale (LAPLEC)
Henry, Sabine
Mertz, Ole
Nielsen, Jonas Ø.
Language :
English
Title :
Comparing climate change perceptions and meteorological data in rural West Africa to improve the understanding of household decisions to migrate
Adger WN, Dessai S, Goulden M et al (2009) Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change? Clim Chang 93:335–354. 10.1007/s10584-008-9520-z
Afifi T, Milan A, Etzold B, Schraven B, Rademacher-Schulz C, Sakdapolrak P, Reif A, van der Geest K, Warner K (2016) Human mobility in response to rainfall variability: opportunities for migration as a successful adaptation strategy in eight case studies. Migr Dev 5:254–274. 10.1080/21632324.2015.1022974
Akponikpè PBI, Johnston P, Agbossou KE (2010) Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies in sub-Sahara West Africa. 2nd International Conference on Climate, Sustainability and Development in Arid Regions, 16–20 August 2010, Fortaleza-Ceara, Brazil
Alessa L, Kliskey A, Williams P, Barton M (2008) Perception of change in freshwater in remote resource-dependent Arctic communities. Global Environ Chang 18:153–164. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.05.007
Ayanlade A, Radeny M, Morton JF (2017) Comparing smallholder farmers’ perception of climate change with meteorological data: a case study from southwestern Nigeria. Weather Clim Extrem 15:24–33. 10.1016/j.wace.2016.12.001
Barbier B, Yacouba H, Karambiri H, Zoromé M, Somé B (2009) Human vulnerability to climate variability in the Sahel: farmers’ adaptation strategies in northern Burkina Faso. Environ Manag 43:790–803. 10.1007/s00267-008-9237-9
Black R, Adger WN, Arnell NW, Dercon S, Geddes A, Thomas D (2011) The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environ Chang 21:S3–S11. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001
Black R, Arnell NW, Adger WN, Thomas D, Geddes A (2013) Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events. Environ Sci Pol 27:s32–S43. 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.09.001
Borderon M, Sakdapolrak P, Muttarak R, Kebede E, Pagogna R, Sporer E (2018) A systematic review of empirical evidence on migration influenced by environmental change in Africa. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-18-003. http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15382/. Accessed 15 Jul 2019
Brüning L, Piguet E (2018) Changements environnementaux et migration en Afrique de l’Ouest. Une revue des études de cas Belgeo Revue belge de géographie 1. 10.4000/belgeo.28836
Bryan E, Deressa TT, Gbetibouo GA, Ringler C (2009) Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints. Environ Sci Pol 12:413–426. 10.1016/j.envsci.2008.11.002
Byg A, Salick J (2009) Local perspectives on a global phenomenon - climate change in eastern Tibetan villages. Global Environ Chang 19:156–166. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.01.010
Cissé P, Zorom M, Barbier B, Maiga A (2010) Les migrations, une stratégie d’adaptation à la variabilité climatique en zones sahéliennes. Revue de Géographie du Laboratoire Leïdi 8:184–196
Cordell DD, Gregory JW, Piché V (1996) Hoe and wage: a social history of a circular migration system in West Africa. Westview press, Boulder
D’haen SAL, Nielsen JØ, Lambin EF (2011) Beyond local climate: rainfall variability as a determinant of household nonfarm activities in contemporary rural Burkina Faso. Clim Dev 6:144–165. 10.1080/17565529.2013.867246
de Longueville F, Hountondji YC, Kindo I, Gemenne F, Ozer P (2016) Long-term analysis of rainfall and temperature data in Burkina Faso (1950–2013). Int J Climatol 36:4393–4405. 10.1002/joc.4640
de Longueville F, Zhu Y, Henry S (2019) Direct and indirect impacts of environmental factors on migration in Burkina Faso: application of structural equation modelling. Pop Environ 40:456–479. 10.1007/s11111-019-00320-x
de Sherbinin A (2011) The biophysical and geographical correlates of child malnutrition in Africa. Popul Space Place 17:27–46. 10.1002/psp.599
Dickinson KL, Monaghan AJ, Rivera IJ et al (2017) Changing weather and climate in northern Ghana: comparison of local perceptions with meteorological and land cover data. Reg Environ Chang 17:915–928. 10.1007/s10113-016-1082-4
Eklund L, Romankiewicz C, Brandt M, Doevenspeck M, Samimi C (2016) Data and methods in the environment-migration nexus: a scale perspective. Die Erde J Geogr Soc Berl 147:139–152
Fosu-Mensah BY, Vlek PL, MacCarthy DS (2012) Farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change: a case study of Sekyedumase district in Ghana. Environ Dev Sustai 14:495–505. 10.1007/s10668-012-9339-7
Gray C, Wise E (2016) Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration. Clim Chang 135:555–568. 10.1007/s10584-015-1592-y
Henry S, Piché V, Ouédraogo D, Lambin EF (2004) Descriptive analysis of the individual migratory pathways according to environmental typologies. Pop Environ 25:397–422
Howe PD, Thaker J, Leiserowitz A (2014) Public perceptions of rainfall change in India. Clim Chang 127:211–225. 10.1007/s10584-014-1245-6
Hulme M (2001) Climatic perspectives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973–1998. Global Environ Chang 11:19–29. 10.1016/S0959-3780(00)00042-X
Hunter L (2005) Migration and environmental hazards. Pop Environ 26:273–302. 10.1007/s11111-005-3343-x
Hunter LM, Luna JK, Norton RM (2015) Environmental dimensions of migration. Annu Rev Sociol 41:377–397. 10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112223
Izazola H, Martinez C, Marquette C (1998) Environmental perceptions, social class and demographic change in Mexico City: a comparative approach. Environ Urban 10:107–118
Juana JS, Kahaka Z, Okurut FN (2013) Farmers’ perceptions and adaptations to climate change in sub-Sahara Africa: a synthesis of empirical studies and implications for public policy in African agriculture. J Agr Sci 5:121–135. 10.5539/jas.v5n4p121
Kaczan DJ, Orgill-Meyer J (2019) The impact of climate change on migration: a synthesis of recent empirical insights. Clim Chang:1–20. 10.1007/s10584-019-02560-0
Kima SA, Okhimamhe AA, Kiema A, Zampaligré N, Sule I (2015) Adapting to the impacts of climate change in the sub-humid zone of Burkina Faso, West Africa: perceptions of agro-pastoralists. Pastoralism 5:16. 10.1186/s13570-015-0034-9
Kosmowski F, Leblois A, Sultan B (2016) Perceptions of recent rainfall changes in Niger: a comparison between climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive households. Clim Chang 135:227–241. 10.1007/s10584-015-1562-4
Koubi V, Spilker G, Schaffer L, Böhmelt T (2016a) The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries. Pop Environ 38:134–163. 10.1007/s11111-016-0258-7
Koubi V, Stoll S, Spiker G (2016b) Environmental change and migration decisions. Clim Chang 138:439–451. 10.1007/s10584-016-1767-1
Lebel T, Ali A (2009) Recent trends in the central and western Sahel rainfall regime (1990–2007). J Hydrol 375:52–64. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.030
Leclerc C, Mwongera C, Camberlin P, Boyard-Micheau J (2013) Indigenous past climate knowledge as cultural built-in object and its accuracy. Ecol Soc 18:22. 10.5751/ES-05896-180422
Lodoun T, Giannini A, Traore PS et al (2013) Changes in seasonal descriptors of precipitation in Burkina Faso associated with late 20th century drought and recovery in West Africa. Environ Dev 5:96–108. 10.1016/j.envdev.2012.11.010
López S, Jung JK, López MF (2017) A hybrid-epistemological approach to climate change research: linking scientific and smallholder knowledge systems in the Ecuadorian Andes. Anthropocene 17:30–45. 10.1016/j.ancene.2017.01.001
Lu M (1999) Do people move when they say they will? Inconsistencies in individual migration behavior. Pop Environ 20:467–488
Macleod L (1996) The migration intentions of young people in Ullapool. Scottish Affairs 15:70–82
Marin A, Berkes F (2013) Local people’s accounts of climate change: to what extent are they influenced by the media? WIRES Clim Change 4:1–8. 10.1002/wcc.199
Mertz O, Mbow C, Nielsen JØ et al (2010) Climate factors play a limited role for past adaptation strategies in West Africa. Ecol Soc 15(4):25 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss4/art25/. Accessed 14 Sept 2019
Mertz O, Mbow C, Reenberg A et al (2011) Adaptation strategies and climate vulnerability in the Sudano-Sahelian region of West Africa. Atmosph Sci Lett 12:104–108. 10.1002/asl.314
Mertz O, D’haen SAL, Maiga A et al (2012) Climate variability and environmental stress in the Sudan-Sahel zone of West Africa. Ambio 41:380–392. 10.1007/s13280-011-0231-8
Meze-Hausken E (2004) Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia. Clim Res 27:19–31. 10.3354/cr027019
Neumann K, Hilderink H (2015) Opportunities and challenges for investigating the environment-migration nexus. Hum Ecol 43:309–322. 10.1007/s10745-015-9733-5
Nicholson SE (2000) The nature of rainfall variability over Africa on time scales of decades to millenia. Glob Planet Chang 26:137–158. 10.1016/S0921-8181(00)00040-0
Nielsen JØ, D’haen SAL (2014) Asking about climate change: reflections on methodology in qualitative climate change research published in global environmental change since 2000. Global Environ Chang 24:402–409. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.10.006
Nielsen JØ, Reenberg A (2010a) Cultural barriers to climate change adaptation: a case study from northern Burkina Faso. Global Environ Chang 20:142–152. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.10.002
Nielsen JØ, Reenberg A (2010b) Temporality and the problem with singling out climate as a current driver of change in a small West African village. J Arid Environ 74:464–474. 10.1080/17565529.2012.660357
Nielsen JØ, D’haen SAL, Reenberg A (2012) Adaptation to climate change as a development project: a case study from northern Burkina Faso. Clim Dev 4:16–25. 10.1080/17565529.2012.660357
Niles MT, Mueller ND (2016) Farmer perceptions of climate change: associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs. Global Environ Chang 39:133–142. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.002
Obokata R, Veronis L, McLeman R (2014) Empirical research on international environmental migration: a systematic review. Pop Environ 36:111–135. 10.1007/s11111-014-0210-7
Osbahr H, Dorward P, Stern R, Cooper S (2011) Supporting agricultural innovation in Uganda to respond to climate risk: linking climate change and variability with farmer perceptions. Exp Agr 47:293–316
Ozer P, Perrin D (2014) Eau et changement climatique. Tendances et perceptions en Afrique de l’Ouest. In: Ballouche A, Taïbi NA (eds) Eau, milieux et aménagement Une recherche au service des territoires. Presses universitaires d’Angers, Angers, pp 227–245
Ozer P, Erpicum M, Demaree G, Vandiepenbeeck M (2003) The Sahelian drought may have ended during the 1990s. Hydrolog Sci J 48:489–492
Piguet E (2010) Linking climate change, environmental degradation, and migration: a methodological overview. WIRES Clim Change1(4): 517–524
Popke J (2016) Researching the hybrid geographies of climate change: reflections from the field. Area 48:2–6. DOI:10.111/area.12220
Rademacher-Schulz C, Schraven B, Mahama ES (2014) Time matters: shifting seasonal migration in Northern Ghana in response to rainfall variability and food insecurity. Clim Dev 6:46–52. 10.1080/17565529.2013.830955
Rasmussen LV, Rasmussen K, Reenberg A, Proud S (2012) A system dynamics approach to land use changes in agro-pastoral systems on the desert margins of Sahel. Agric Syst 107:56–64. 10.1016/j.agsy.2011.12.002
Razavi T, Switzman H, Arain A, Coulibaly P (2016) Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: a case study of Hamilton, Canada. Clim Risk Manag 13:43–63. 10.1016/j.crm.2016.06.002
Reckien D (2014) Weather extremes and street life in India-implications of fuzzy cognitive mapping as a new tool for semi-quantitative impact assessment and ranking of adaptation measures. Glob Environ Chang 26:1–13. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.005
Romankiewicz C, Doevenspeck M (2015) Climate and mobility in the West African Sahel: conceptualising the local dimensions of the environment and migration Nexus. In: Greschke H, Tischler J (eds) Grounding global climate change. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 79–100
Roncoli C (2006) Ethnographic and participatory approaches to research on farmers’ responses to climate predictions. Clim Res 33:81–99. 10.3354/cr033081
Roncoli C, Ingram K, Kirshen P (2002) Reading the rains: local knowledge and rainfall forecasting in Burkina Faso. Soc Nat Resour 15:409–427. 10.1080/08941920252866774
Simelton E, Quinn CH, Batisani N et al (2013) Is rainfall really changing? Farmers’ perceptions, meteorological data, and policy implications. Clim Dev 5:123–138. 10.1080/17565529.2012.751893
Sivakumar M (1988) Predicting rainy season potential from the onset of rains in Southern Sahelian and Sudanian climatic zones of West Africa. Agric For Meteorol 42:295–305
Sivakumar M, Hatfield J (1990) Spatial variability of rainfall at an experimental station in Niger West Africa. Theor Appl Climatology 42:33–39
Soglo YY, Nonvide GMA (2019) Climate change perceptions and responsive strategies in Benin: the case of maize farmers. Clim Chang 155:246–256. 10.1007/s10584-019-02452-3
Sutcliffe C, Dougill AJ, Quinn CH (2016) Evidence and perceptions of rainfall change in Malawi: do maize cultivar choices enhance climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa? Reg Environ Chang 16:1215–1224. 10.1007/s10113-015-0842-x
Tambo JA, Abdoulaye T (2012) Climate change and agricultural technology adoption: the case of drought tolerant maize in rural Nigeria. Mitig Adapt Strat Gl 17:277–292. 10.1007/s10113-012-0351-0
Van der Land V, Romankiewicz C, van der Geest K (2018) Environmental change and migration: a review of West African case studies. In: McLeman R, Gemenne F (eds) Routledge handbook of environmental displacement and migration (Pp. 163–177). Routledge
Warner K, Afifi T (2014) Where the rain falls: evidence from 8 countries on how vulnerable households use migration to manage the risk of rainfall variability and food insecurity. Clim Dev 6:1–17. 10.1080/17565529.2013.835707
Zampaligré N, Dossa LH, Schlecht E (2014) Climate change and variability: perception and adaptation strategies of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists across different zones of Burkina Faso. Reg Environ Chang 14:769–783. 10.1007/s10113-013-0532-5
Zhang X, Yang F (2004) RClimDex (1.0) user manual. Ontario: Downsview
