High resolution mapping of population change in breeding birds in Wallonia (Southern Belgium)

Patterns of fine-scale change in bird abundance across different landscapes may inform about the driving forces behind bird communities evolution. We compare km²-resolution map of breeding birds in Wallonia (Southern Belgium) at 10 years interval. The maps are based on repeated sampling transects conducted inside a km²-grid. Spatial modelling techniques were applied on these two dataset using environmental variables produced by the LifeWatch-WB Project. Variables are issued from pixel-based land cover classification of orthophoto mapping and satellite images, with a resolution of 2 meters and are available for the two periods corresponding to bird data. Others variables included in the model are topographic and soil attributes. For each bird species, spatial models built with data from the first period are projected with the value of the environmental variables for the more recent period, and vice-versa. Moreover, another method is to compare models built independently on the two periods. GAM (Generalized Additive Models) are used for modelling. These analyses allow to study if it is possible to predict the change in bird populations thanks to the data of changes of land cover.